注意这一步：英国通胀预测更新

Restricted - External Economics ResearchJack Meaning+ 44 (0) 207 773 3424jack.meaning@barclays.comBarclays, UKInflation-Linked ResearchIaroslav Shelepko(i)+44 (0) 20 7773 3557iaroslav.shelepko@barclays.comBarclays, UK UK inflation forecast tablefor update note_22 May.xlsxthese three categories, this adjustment detracts a further 0.35pp from May onwards. We donot fade the news in vehicle excise duty (VED), which grew by 18.3pp more than we hadassumed. This strength was driven by the large increases in VED for new cars whose taxtreatment changed and it will sit in the annual calculation for the next 12 months as a levelshift.The net of these revisions leaves our services forecast between 0.4pp and 0.5pp higherthen previously over the next 12 months, before the unchanged sequential path beyond May2025 leaves annual services inflation consistent with our previous forecast from May 2026onwards.Core goods (NEIG):Annual core goods inflation came in 0.1pp lower than our forecast pathwith weakness in durables and semidurables only partlyoffsetby some strength innondurable goods. We fade some of the weakness in semidurables to reflect an Easterdiscounting. However, we retain the majority of the news as semidurables have been weakrelative to recent seasonal patterns since the start of the year, pointing to a structural patternmore aligned with early 2021, before the supply chain and energy price shocks (Figure 2).What is more, sterling has appreciated by around 1% since April, and almost 4% since thestart of the year, which we expect to facilitate the recent weakness in core goods persistingover the coming months. Our forecast for core goods is therefore lower by an average of0.09pp for the next 12 months.Food, alcohol and tobacco (FAT):FAT surprised positively by 0.24pp relative to our previousforecast, although the beat relative to our tracked nowcast was a smaller 0.1pp. The beat wassplit relatively evenly between processed food and alcohol. Given the ONS' index day fellclose to the Easter bank holiday, we judge a fraction (half) of this beat was due to strongerEaster demand and fade it, leaving our forecast for FAT inflation 0.14pp higher over the next12 months.Energy:April's print showed the energy component 0.96pp lower than we had forecast. Whilethe energy price cap was well known in advance, the downside news to pump prices impliedin our tracking nowcast came to fruition and heating oil came in weaker then we hadexpected. We now expect this miss to be exacerbated from Q3 onwards as marking-to-marketthe current Ofgem price cap model suggests that Q3 could see a contraction of closer to 7%m/m than the -3.5% m/m we had previously assumed. The Ofgem window is noweffectivelyclosed, with the final decision to be announced before 27 May, but we think there is still scopefor an upside surprise from the more ad-hoc parts of the calculation and so assume -6% m/mfor July, acknowledging risks to the downside. As a cross-check on this assumption, CornwallInsights, an independent specialist forecaster of the price cap, is currently expecting a 7%contraction in July. If this were to transpire then it would remove a further 4bp from ourheadline CPI forecast from July.Headline and core:The net of all of these forecast judgements is to leave our core CPIforecast 0.27pp higher over the next 12 months but unchangedthereafter.Our profile forheadline CPI is between 0.08pp and 0.17pp higher over the next 12 months as the stronger-than-expected price level shocks within April's print play through.2 •••• Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Live, Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Iaroslav Shelepko and Jack Meaning, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views aboutany or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objec