优质收入增长稳步推进

Baozun (BZUN US) Quality revenue growth on track Target PriceUS$3.55(Previous TPUS$3.53)Up/Downside15.3%Current PriceUS$3.08 Baozunreleased1Q25results: total revenue was RMB2.1bn,up 4% YoY, 2%better thanBloombergconsensus,mainly driven by the beat inBaozun BrandManagement(BBM)revenue;non-GAAPnetlossattributabletoordinaryshareholders of Baozun came in at RMB57mn,better than consensus of loss ofRMB65mn. Baozun E-commerce(BEC) inked revenue growth of1.4%YoY, andBBMbooked23% YoY growth (4Q24:17% YoY),driven by strong performanceof both Gap and Hunter brands.Baozun is prioritizing operating efficiency gainsoverbusinessexpansion for BEC business, and is on track to deliver non-GAAPOP growthofover 20% YoY in 2025E, in our view.Meanwhile, the companycontinuesto drivesolid revenue growth and loss reduction of BBM business,which should achieve non-GAAP OP breakeven in4Q25on our estimates. Our2025E non-GAAP OP forecast for Baozun remains unchanged at RMB119mn.Our SOTP based TP was fine tuned to US$3.55 (was US$3.53).Maintain BUY. Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk SolidBEC revenuegrowthin1Q25.By segment, product sales revenuewas up14.4%YoY(4Q24:5.0% YoY) to RMB809mn,and services revenuewasdown1.4% YoY (4Q24:9.3% YoY) to RMB1.3bn.In1Q25, revenuegenerated from BEC grew by1.4% YoY to RMB1.7bn,primarily driven bystronger sales in its distribution business model, and revenue generatedfrom BBM increased by23% YoYdue tostrong performance of both GapandHunterbrands.Withinservicesrevenue,onlinestoreoperations/warehousingandfulfilment/digital marketing and IT solutionsachieved12/-4/-6% YoY growth. Group-level non-GAAP operatinglosscame in at RMB66.9mn (1Q24: RMB17.5mn),driven by loss reduction ofBBM, while offset by widened loss in BEC due to incremental investment inemerging e-commerce channels to drive for long-term growth.2Q25E outlook: expecting solidBEC operating profitgrowthand Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk continuouslossreductionof BBM.For2Q25E, weestimatetotal revenuegrowthof0%/27%YoYforBEC/BBMbusiness.WeexpectBECtocontinuouslyfocusonimprovingoperating efficiency, with non-GAAP OP togrow33%YoY in 2Q25E,andnon-GAAP OPM to improve to3.8% (2Q24:2.8%). For BBM,we see support for revenue growth from both new storeopeningand same-store sales growth,driven by optimized merchandisingplansforGap, as well as strong growth from Hunter. Driven by solid revenuegrowth as well aseffort to drive foroperatingefficiencyimprovement, weanticipatethe loss ofBBM businesstonarrowto RMB40mn in 2Q25E(2Q24: loss of RMB50mn).Maintain BUY with SOTP-based target priceadjusted toUS$3.55.Our SOTP-basedvaluationconsists of:1) RMB1.1bn for BEC, based on 5.0x2025E EV/EBIT (unchanged); 2)RMB170mn for BBM, based on 0.1x2025E EV/sales (unchanged);and3) RMB2.6bn in net cash.Wehaveapplieda60% holding discount to group-levelvaluation. Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related tothe specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in ortraded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2)willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15%over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected tooutperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperformthe relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”)is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in a