赛诺菲：收购阿尔茨海默病研究项目——早期高风险但医疗需求高

SanofiRatingOutperformPrice TargetSAN.FPAdjusted EPSSAN.FP (EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Yesterday, Sanofi announced the acquisition of Vigil Neuroscience, a US biotech company fora total consideration of $470m ($8 per share) + a CVR of $2 (conditional upon the approvalof VG-3927, an oral product). This molecule shows a new approach for the treatment ofAlzheimer’s disease (TREM2 involved in the protection of the microglia, which is damaged inAlzheimer’s disease), and should start phase II.This acquisition fits with Sanofi’s key priorities(neurology), and the group was alreadyfamiliar with the company, as it invested in Vigil Neuroscience in June 2024 ($40m). However,we note that a product from another US biotech (Alector, collaboration with AbbVie, coveredby our US colleague Courtney Breen) with the same mechanism of action (TREM2) wasdiscontinued in January 2025 due to lack of efficacy in early Alzheimer’s. So, it will be keyfor Sanofi to select the right population (maybe more severe sufferers vs early disease).Alzheimer’s is an area with high medical need (limited treatment options), but given thespecificity of the disease (silent and slow evolving disease with unreliable biomarkers) thisproject is highly risky. However, it will nicely complement the group’s early-stage portfolioand, if successful, may bring innovation and growth beyond 2030. There is no impact on the2025 guidance (closing 3Q25) and the development costs will be supported by the existingR&D budget.Outperform reiterated. Our earnings forecasts are mid- to high-single-digits aboveconsensus estimates (dilutive Opella impact but higher long-term assumptions on pipelineand new products). At our PT, Sanofi is trading slightly above the Pharma sector on 2025eP/E (but below its 10y high absolute P/E), which is justified by its above-sector earningsgrowth (2024-29e EPS CAGR: +12% vs 9%) with good visibility on sales and earningsgrowth (limited generics risks, small IRA exposure, Dupixent success and recently launchedproducts) and pipeline optionality (clinical trials read out every year with limited marketexpectations). Next catalysts (2H): Ph3 results for Itepekimab (smoker’s disease) andtolebrutinib in multiple sclerosis (we stand 50% above consensus for 2030e). Link to our lastreport: Sanofi: Best idea 2Q25 — a new era of sustained growth and visibility with pipelineoptionalitySee the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 07:40 UTC Completion Date: 22 May 2025 07:40 UTC F24AF25EF26E7.128.209.28FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRReported EPS4.445.176.18--Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)4.2EDM (%)Relative (%)€120€115€110€105€100€95€90€8505/24 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe reiterate our Outperform rating on Sanofi.BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingSAN.FPOEUREDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN BIOPHARMACEUTICALS 21 May2025ClosingPrice93.751,437.27 I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYSanofiWe arrive at a price target of €124 by using a 50/50 combination of a DCF (WACC 8%, terminal growth 1%, 30% LT EBITA margin)and a SOTP (based on 2025-27e EV/EBITA sector multiples average for Pharma business, 20% premium for Vaccines and Opellaat transaction value).RISKSSanofiDownside: 1) Lower Dupixent penetration due to a tougher competitive environment in Atopic Dermatitis; 2) Multiple failures inthe immune-inflammation pipeline (such as itepekimab or amlitelimab); 2) Capital allocation issues: acquisition of large expensivelate stage assets outside Sanofi’s domain of expertise.RATINGS