印孚瑟斯银行有限公司（IIB）：2025财年第四季度清理季度；等待新首席执行官；特许经营价值合理

2025A106.426.40.49%4.2%FY2489,4981151.8%15%71.0 2026E2027E99.1120.829.650.10.52%0.83%4.5%7.2%FY25FY26EFY27E26,42929,55850,0523438640.5%0.5%0.8%4%4%7%2320121.00.90.9 2028E146.966.00.97%8.7%FY28E66,012851.0%9%90.8 Prakhar Sharma * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6129 | prakhar.sharma@jefferies.comVinayak Agarwal * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6178 | vagarwal2@jefferies.com The Long View: IndusInd Bank LimitedInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We see potential to ramp up lending (merchant lending, MFI, non-CV autoloans), defend margins and lower credit costs.•We believe IIB's asset-quality pressures are behind it,as it hasrecognized/provided for most of the stressed book.•The bank needs to strengthen the deposit franchise due to higherconcentration and risk aversion among wholesale depositors.Base Case,INR920, +19%•Loan CAGR of 7% (over FY25-27E)•NIMs around 3.6% (avg. FY26-28E)•GNPA 3.1% and NNPA 1% in FY26E•Valuation at 1x Jun-27E ABV - Rs920Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Incorporation of ESG into credit analysis2)Responsible Finance3)Lending /Selling Practices4)Customer Privacy & Data SecurityCompany Target(s): 1)Improving its triple bottom line (People, Planet, and Profit) performanceby further integrating sustainability considerations into its business practices, decision-making,operations, and products.2)Increasing lending to projects in renewable energy, drinking water, andother positive impact sectors.3)Reduction in GHG and Scope 1/2/3 emissions.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How do you plan to participate in the +US$12trn green funding gap in India? What isthe share of the company’s revenues from sectors promoting socio-economic causes, and from non-metro & non-tier 1 locations?2)What steps is the company taking to ensure strong data security andcustomer privacy, given the increasing share of digital transactions?3)What steps is the Companytaking to promote gender diversity at different levels? What are the initiatives toward employeetraining/re-skilling?Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View18001600140012001000800600Upside Scenario,INR1060, +37%•Loan CAGR of 8% (over FY25-27E)•NIMs around 3.7% (avg. FY26-28E)•GNPA 3% and NNPA 0.9% in FY26E•Valuation at 1.2x Jun-27E ABV - Rs1,060 20252024Downside Scenario,INR690, -11%•Loan CAGR of 6% (over FY26-28E)•NIMs around 3.5% (avg. FY26-28E)•GNPA 3.2% and NNPA 1.1% in FY26E•Valuation at 0.8x Jun-27E ABV - Rs690CatalystsDownside•AssetqualityMicrofinance•Loss of CASA, especially from Governmentand corporate clients•Increasing reliance on non-funded and tradingbook for generating fee and trade revenuesUpside•Macro revival and receding risks in stressedsegments•Initiatives by the new CEO to consolidatebalance sheet and granularise the book. deterioration CV/CE, 2 Exhibit 2 - Summary of 4QFY25 results.Particular, RsmnIncome statementInterest earned- on Advances / Bills- Income on investments- on bal with RBI and other banks- OthersInterest costsNet Interest IncomeOther income- Fees- TreasuryOperating incomeTotal Operating expenses- Employee expenses- Other operating expensesOperating profitProvisions and contingenciesPBTProvision for TaxPATPPOP ex treasuryBalance sheet (Rsbn)LoansTotal AssetsDepositsCasaLoan qualityGross NPLs (Rsm)Net NPLs (Rsm)Gross NPL (% of loans)Net NPL (% of loans)Coverage ratio (%)Slippages (Rsbn)Delinquency ratio (% of past year loans)RatiosNIMsROACredit costs (% of avg. loans)Casa ratio (% of deposits)Total Capital adequacy (%)of which Tier I CARSource: Company, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Adjustments done in 4QFY25.AspectItems having impact on P&LCharge off for Derivative TransactionProvisions on unaccounted MFI NPLReversal of Interest Income and Fees on MFIInterest Income reversal on unaccounted MFI NPLUnaccounted Interest Exp on borrowingsProvision on other assetsPrior period Operating expensesPrior period IncomeTotalItems having impact on slippagesUnaccounted NPL in MFIReclassification without earnigns impactReclassified from Interest Income to FeesReclassified from Provisions to OpexTotalBalance Sheet adjustments without earnings impactReversal from other assets and liabilitiesSource: Bank, JefferiesExhibit 4 - Reported vs. Normalised financials.Net Interest IncomeOther incomeOperating incomeOpexPPOPProvisionsPBTNIMSource: Bank, JefferiesExhibit 5 - Mkt Cap/ loans: Floor around 10%; Currently, IIB trades at 18%.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%May-07May-08May-09Source: Bloomberg, Company, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 6 - Mkt Cap/ deposits: Floor around 8%; Current