Shopify（SHOP）：2025年夏季版本关税、人工智能增强功能关键要点

Samad Samana * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4649 | ssamana@jefferies.comJeremy Sahler, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2475 | jsahler@jefferies.com$106.43^$110.00 | +3%$129.38 - $48.56FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)92.7% | 1,724.87$139.2B^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseEquity ResearchMay 21, 2025 to the first $1m of lifetime revenue, after which a 15% rev share with SHOP will apply. The changeshould be a tailwind to GP$s as early as late 2025 and into 2026.Please see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionShopifyShopify provides a cloud-based e-commerce platform for merchants of all sizes, with a particular focus on SMBs. Merchants can use Shopify to buildand manage their online businesses and sell across multiple channels and devices. The company also offers Shopify Plus, a more robust version ofits platform targeted at larger merchants. Shopify was founded in 2004, became public in 2015, and is headquartered in Ontario, Canada.Company Valuation/RisksShopifyValuation.Our $110 price target is based on our DCF analysis. Risks include competition, the macro environment, a significant mix shift back to brickand mortar, and a rapid rise in interest rates.Alphabet, Inc.Our $200 PT is based on 12x EV/EBITDA our forward NTM estimates, which is inline with the stock's 12x historical average given its superiorfundamentals relative to ad peers. Risks include impact from macro, regulatory overhang, margin pressure from ongoing investments, and impactsfrom shift toward generative AI, mobile, in-app, and voice-to-core search.Global-e Online Ltd.Our $66 price target is based on our DCF analysis. Risks include competition, the SHOP partnership failing to scale, e-commerce traction stagnatingpost pandemic, and customer concentration.Meta Platforms, Inc.Our price target of $700 is DCF-derived and implies 27x 2026E EPS. Risks include declines in user engagement, advertiser churn, and regulatory risk.Analyst Certification:I, Samad Samana, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Jeremy Sahler, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are publishedat irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedCompany Specific DisclosuresRayyan Matraji owns shares of Alphabet Inc common stock.James Heaney has a long position in Facebook.Jefferies Financial Group Inc., its affiliates or subsidiaries make a market in the securities or ADRs of Global-e Online Ltd.Explanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.Please see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. May 21, 2025 , 15:30 ET.May 21, 2025 , 20:00 ET.3 The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistentlybelow $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with anaverage security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less