康维德（CTEC）：提前完成计划

0.15 2025E2026E2027E2,440.92,563.52,727.5547.5602.0660.70.180.200.222,383.42,523.12,678.7 Julien Dormois * | Equity Analyst+33 1 8665 6375 | jdormois@jefferies.comMartinien Rula, CFA * | Equity Associate+33 1 86 65 63 68 | mrula@jefferies.comJames Vane-Tempest ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8275 | jvane-tempest@jefferies.comChristopher Richardson, ACA ^ | EquityAssociate+44 (0)20 7029 8675 | chris.richardson@jefferies.com The Long View: ConvaTecInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•CTEC has pivoted to higher growth with stronger competitive positions inattractive chronic care markets and innovation-driven superior growth inAWM and IC.•Our analysis suggests overblown reimbursement risks for AWM and fromGLP-1s on IC (35% and 25% of growth, respectively, by '26e).•On margin, we believe only a new round of high inflation could derail themargin trajectory towards MT target of mid-20's by 2026-27 (JEF and cons.~23.5% in '26e).•As we expect CTEC to have one of the sector's fastest EPS growthrates by 2027e, we expect the ~25% sector discount to narrow further in2025, helped by a flurry of new product launches and increased investorconfidence in the sustainability of the recovery.Base Case,325p, +18%•OSG to remain at a healthy level of 5-6% inFY25e (incl IM impact from LCD), mainly liftedby HSD growth in CC/IC.•Adj EBIT margin of ~22.5%, up ~100bp from '24level and progressing towards MT guidance of24-26% by 2026-27e.•Implied ~24.5x P/E '25e.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): (1) Maintaining product quality & safetyrequiring ongoing robust complianceprocedures and internal controls;(2) Patient access to medical technologiesboth in low/middle-incomecountries and the developed world and access to educated healthcare professionals;(3) Establishresponsible and resilient supply chains.ESG targets: (1)30% vitality index by Q4’2025 (vs. 2021: 25%);(2)MDR compliance target 100% byMay 2024;(3)net zero carbon by 2045;(4)>40% female senior leadership by 2025;(5)27% reductionin operations' lost time injury rate by 2025.Questions to management:(1)How does the company aim to progressively reduce the use of plastics inits packaging and products?(2)How does the company plan to ensure its transition plans to recyclablematerials & renewable energy have a limited impact on its operations, product quality and financials?(3)What differentiates the company as an employer of choice within the healthcare industry to attract talent& what steps are taken to ensure the culture retains talent?ESG Sector Integration: Medical Equipment & SuppliesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,380p, +38%•OSG of ~7% in FY25e with limited impact from•Adj EBIT margin uplift towards 23% in FY25e.•0% discount vs sector (vs all-time high of 5%•Implied ~27.5x P/E '25e. LCD on IM sales, lifting AWC growth to MSD/HSDdiscount). Downside Scenario,220p, -20%•OSG of 4-5% in FY25e with weakness across alldivisions due to lack of commercial traction fornew products.•Adj EBIT margin of 21.5% (broadly in line with'24 levels).•Discount vs sector expanding to 35% (vs all-time low of ~50%).•Implied ~18x P/E '25e.Catalysts•Jul 2025 (est.): 1H25 results•Feb 2026 (est.): 2H25 results•Aug 2026 (est.): 1H26 results•Feb 2027 (est.): 2H26 results 2 Exhibit 1 - CTEC results vs consensus.USD mAdvanced Wound Care% organicOstomy Care% organicContinence & Critical Care% organicInfusion Care% organicTotal revenue% reported growth% organicAdjusted EBIT% of salesAdjusted net profitAdj basic EPS (USD cents)% growthSource: Visible Alpha, JEF estimates, Company dataHighlights From The CallAWMEurope growth to accelerate in H2 thanks to new product launches (mainly ConvaFoam)ConvaNiox - initial market launch later this year - breakthrough product and could become a newcategory (both antimicrobial and accelerates wound healing), so looking for premium reimb - wantto take it steady to get it right, so excited but mid-term play (US launch later in '26)ConvaFoam - launched in EuropeInnovaMatrixHSD decline in 1H25 vs 25% drop guided for FY25 (based on $75m guide) - have slightly firmed uptheir guide with now "at least $75m" (vs $75m prev)Sales ramped up in H2 so need to see if happens again this yearFocused on the future notably through RCTs (still expected to report sometime in '26 but not morespecific as trials can be adapted based on CMS requirements)Did not embark on any restructuring of the sales force, as very confident in IM prospects for thelong runWe now forecast IM sales of >$90m with a decline <10% in FY25e (<25% drop in LCD vs <35% growthex-LCD) causing AWM sales to grow ~3%, then 0-1% growth in '26 (IM sales down ~35% and non-IMsales up 5-6% lifted by ConvaNiox) and HSD growth from '27 (assuming IM return on LCD indicationswith total IM sales >USD80m)Exhibit 2 - Building blocks of AWC sales and OSG.USD mAWM sales% OSGAWC ex-I