4月在大幅波动中资金流动情况复杂

Restricted - External Japan FX and Rates StrategyLhamsuren Sharavdemberel+81 3 4530 1881lhamsuren.sharavdemberel@barclays.comBSJL, JapanShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, JapanAyao Ehara+ 81 3 4530 1379ayao.ehara@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Foreign asset investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3International Transactions in Securities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3March balance of payments (foreign securities investment by destination). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Retail Investors: Toshin investment funds and Uridashi bonds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Margin FX positions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Cross-border M&A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Domestic Asset Investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Japanese equities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Japanese government bonds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11BoJ Asset Purchases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15BoJ asset purchase update. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15May Japanese pension rebalancing estimate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Appendix on Japanese pension rebalancing model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Appendix: Explanation of data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 1JGB redemptions are counted as sales (net outflows) in the MoF data.Foreign asset investmentsInternational Transactions in SecuritiesJapanese investorsshiftfrom foreign bonds to foreign equities led by rebalancing;net buying of Japanese equities and medium/long-term bonds by overseasinvestors reaches multiyear highsApril saw Japanese investors sell a net JPY2.0trn in foreign bonds, the most since last October,amid large swings in both rates and FX driven by developments around US reciprocaltariffs.Byinvestor, banks logged a large net sale of JPY2.6trn, perhaps partly reflecting positionadjustments at the start of the fiscal year. In addition, trust accounts (pensions) net soldJPY0.8trn, selling heavily for a second consecutive month. This presumably reflects rebalancingdue to the limited price declines in foreign bonds relative to domestic and overseas equities, aswe signalled in April Japanese pension rebalancing estimate, 17 April. Among other investors,trust banks bought a net JPY0.8trn, while life insurers sold a net JPY0.1trn, remaining on the sellside for a sixth consecutive month. According to weekly data, selling was concentrated in thefirst week of the month, when the reciprocaltariffswere announced, and followed by a turn tonet buying in the second half of the month.In foreign equities/funds, Japanese investors logged a record net purchase of JPY3.3trn, amidthe large swing in global equities following thetariffannouncements. By investor, trustaccounts net bought a record JPY2.8trn on rebalancing in response to earlier JPY appreciation/equity declines. Among other investors, investment trusts slowed their net purchases toJPY0.8trn from the previous month’s JPY1.1trn, but continued to buy at elevated levelsnevertheless, presumably driven by the new NISA program. Weekly data show that buying washeaviest during the first week of April, when thetariffswere announced.In the other direction1, overseas investors net bought Japanese securities on the largest scale inseveral years, logging net purchases of JPY3.7trn in equities, the most since April 2023, andJPY4.5trn in medium/long-term bonds, the most since July 2022. Based on weekly data,overseas investors bought equities throughout the month of April, while buying bonds in thefirst half and selling in the second half. Buying in both equities and bonds was concentrated inthe first half of the month. 3 March balance of payments (foreign securities investment by destination)Foreign bond selling was widespread in March and buying slowed for FY24 as awhole; in EM, selling of Chinese bonds acceleratedDM:March saw geographically widespread net-selling of foreign bonds by Japanese investors(JPY0.7trn) at the end of the fiscal year. US bonds saw their first net sale in three months(JPY0.2trn), reflecting a net sum of JPY0.6trn in sovereign bonds, the first selling in five months,along with a net purchase of JPY0.4trn in non-sovereign bonds