危地马拉公共财政评论

Guatemala Public Finance Review © 2024 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and doesnot assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the useof or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations,links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of worksauthored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of theirworks. Nothing herein shall consƟtute or be construed or considered to be a limitaƟon upon or waiver of the privileges and immuniƟes ofThe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. AƩribuƟon—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2024. Guatemala Public Finance Review. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, TheWorld Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Contents I.ExecuƟve Summary.............................................................................................................................. 9II.IntroducƟon........................................................................................................................................ 19III.Revenue..............................................................................................................................................22 A.Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 22B.Literature Review ...........................................................................................................................23C.Drivers of Tax Revenue...................................................................................................................24D.Tax Revenue and Tax Policy Benchmarking....................................................................................25E.Tax AdministraƟon Benchmarking.................................................................................................35F.RecommendaƟons......................................................................................................................... 36 IV.Public Financial Management............................................................................................................41 A.Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 41B.Performance-Based BudgeƟng...................................................................................................... 43C.IntegraƟng Climate Commitments into the Budget.......................................................................57 V.Fiscal Risks.......................................................................................................................................... 63 A.What are Fiscal Risks? ....................................................................................................................63B.ImplicaƟons for Fiscal Policy.......................................................................................................... 64C.Fiscal Risks in Guatemala ...............................................................................................................65D.RecommendaƟons for Strengthening the Management of Fiscal Risks........................................76 VI.References..........................................................................................................................................80 Figures Figure 1. Central government revenues, expenditures, and deficits 2015-2024 (% of GDP): ....................20Figure 2. Central government debt, 2015-2024 (% of GDP) ....................................................................... 20Figure 3. Central government expenditures by economic classificaƟon, 2015-2024 (% of GDP)...............20Figure 4. Central government social spend