回归正常：美国利率研究资金流动

US Rates Research: Flow of Funds Back to normal Bond fund flows remained positive at $6bn, albeit down fromthe prior week's pace. Mutual fund positioning moved closerto neutralafterbeing quite overweight in recent weeks.Custody holdings fell, while TIC show quite strong demand inMarch. We expect few consequences from the Moody'sdowngrade. Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, US Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US Fixed income bond ETF and mutual funds aggregate flows remained positive for the week toMay 15. Inflows totaled about $6bn, down from the $11bn in the prior week, and at the 48thpercentile versus the past six months. Long-term funds fared rather well, with inflows at the 93rdpercentile. Short-term government funds and mixed long-term funds, on the other hand, hadrelatively higher outflows. Funds have now received a good portion of their post-“Liberation-Day” outflows – with aggregate flows since April 2 at -$6.6bn on net. Demi Hu+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.comBCI, US At the same time, our positioning proxy has become quite a bit less long. Mutual funds look tobe only a touch overweight, while Macro/CTAs reduced longs and are now welloffextremelevels of a few weeks ago. CFTC data show that the total DV01 of leveraged fund net shorts fellfor the first time since late February, while Fed data show primary dealer positioning in coupons declined by about $7bn, to the 98thpercentile, and dealer holdings of bills fell $4bn, withpositioning around the 20th percentile of the past five years. Bank securities holdings fell about $7bn with MBS having declined by about $10bn. However,much of that looks to be valuationeffectsto us given theselloffin rates over the reporting week,rather than banks' reducing holdings. Over the prior several weeks, banks look to have beenstrong buyers at times, however. Money market fund total assets were little changed, while SOFR was pretty stable over theweek. The 3m SOFR/FF basis continued to inch higherafterhaving moved sharply negative inearly April/post “Liberation Day.” On Friday, Moody's became the third and final major creditrating agency to downgrade the US government's credit rating, but we do not expect forcedselling of USTs and see few consequences from this decision with respect to either money fundsor repo markets (see here). The foreign demand picture still looks fine from the data we have in hand so far. The latestforeign custody holdings at the Fed fell a touch, with Treasuries down about $10bn over theweek, well within normal week-to-week variations, and are about $30bn lower in total sinceearly April. Japanese MoF data show investors net bought $13bn in overseas notes and bondsover the week to May 9, and on net are about $7bn lower since late March. TIC data for March Thisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 18.Completed: 19-May-25, 13:50 GMTReleased: 19-May-25, 13:54 GMTRestricted - External were also released last week and show that foreign demand increased from already robustlevels in February. In total they bought about $173bn in US fixed income securities, up from$120bn in February. Much of the demand came from the private sector ($135bn) in USTs ($82bn)and corporate bonds ($57bn). China remained a net seller to the tune of -$28bn in long-termUSTs, quite a bit above the 12m average of -$12bn/mo, but it also has been a buyer of bills,having net bought $8bn in March. Mutual funds and ETFs •Over the five days through May 15, US bond funds had $6.1bn of inflows, which compareswith the prior four-week average of $0.7bn in inflows. The latest data bring total year-to-dateinflows to $125bn (versus $153bn over the same period in 2024). •The breakdown of flows over the five days through May 15 as a percentile over the prior sixmonths for various fund types shows that short-term government, mixed long-term, andintermediate-term government bond funds had the weakest demand, while long-termgovernment, high yield, and total return bond funds had the strongest demand. Money markets •Total money market fund assets fell $5bn over the week to May 14. The data show totalinflows over the past 12 months of about $892bn and AUM of about $6.9trn. •Over the week ending May 14, total assets on the Fed's balance sheet were littlechanged, with no SOMArun-off.The change in assets compares with an average weekly dropof $4bn over the prior four weeks. °On the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet, ONRRP rose $10bn and the TGA fell $33bn.Along with other changes, t