2021年法国极端天气事件

MILLIMANREPORT Extremeweather eventsinEuropefor 2021 andbeyond Insurance industry impactandactionablestepsfor insurerstotake a leading role in managingclimate-relatedfinancial risks March2022 Victorien Poncelet,FIAMohamed Benkhalfa,FIAGiuseppe Semeraro, ISOANiccolò Basetti Sani Vettori, ISOA Anandi Shah, FIAIan Penfold, FIAMenno van Wijk,AAGChristoph Krischanitz,AVÖ, DAV Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................1AUSTRIA................................................................................................................................................................2BELGIUM...............................................................................................................................................................3FRANCE.................................................................................................................................................................4GERMANY..............................................................................................................................................................5ITALY......................................................................................................................................................................7LUXEMBOURG....................................................................................................................................................11THE NETHERLANDS...........................................................................................................................................11UNITED KINGDOM..............................................................................................................................................13OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE............................................................................................................................16OVERVIEW......................................................................................................................................................16FUTURE OUTLOOK BY EUROPEAN COUNTRY...........................................................................................17ACTIONABLE STEPS FOR INSURERS..............................................................................................................21ENSURE YOUR ORGANISATION IS ACTIVELY CONSIDERING CLIMATE RISK........................................21IMPROVE THE ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE EXPECTED LOSSES..............................................................21TAKE A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO MANAGING CLIMATE RISK..............................................................21ENGAGEWITH POLICYHOLDERS AND POLICY MAKERS..........................................................................22USE RISK AS AN OPPORTUNITY..................................................................................................................22STAY CURRENT WITH THE MILLIMAN CLIMATE RESILIENCE INITIATIVE...............................................22 Executive Summary In February 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report, confirmingthat climate change induced by humanity is already impacting nature and people more intensely, more frequentlyand over a wider geographical areathan previously thought andthatsome effects are now unavoidable.1Climatechange continues to be evident across Europe: Each European country’s climate continues to warm. For example, average temperatures for the UK continueto climb with the last 30-year period (1991-2020)0.9°C warmer than the preceding 30 years (1961-1990).2Winters have been getting wetter, and summers have become drier, with an increased rate of intensity andfrequency over the recent years.Several European countries have been experiencing consecutive wind and rain storms,bringingdevastatingdamage tomany homes and businesses.The aggregated damages of consecutive storms have typicallybeen greater than the aggregated damages for similar storms spread across the year.On the other hand, drier conditions have made it difficult for farmers and growers, adversely affecting theagricultural industry. 2021 was an unusual year, with extreme weather events bringingabove-average claims to European insurers. The costliest event was the July 2021 flooding in Germany, Belgium and nearby countries. This flood disastercaused up to USD 13 billion in insured losses (approximately EUR 11.5 billion as of February 2022), compared tomore than USD 40 billion in economic loss (approximately EUR 35.3 billion as of February 2022), indicating avery large flood protection gap. The flooding was the costliest natural disaster for the region since 1970 and theworld’s second-highest in that period, after the 2011Thailand flood. Further devastating secondary peril activity included severe convective storms in June, wit