全球债券资金流向指南：墨西哥本地债务资金流出

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research PodcastsHimanshu Malik, CFASenior Global Emerging Markets Rates StrategistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhimanshu1malik@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 7006Soumya Mohanty, CFAAnalyst, APAC Rates StrategyHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedsoumya.ranjan.mohanty@hsbc.co.in+91 80 6827 3548Vanchit GuptaAssociateBangaloreGlobal ◆◆◆ Listen to our insightsFind out more Emerging markets (EM):EM local government debt started to rebound over the week largely led byFX gains while risk sentiment has also improved following the90-day trade truce betweentheUSand China.Asia, theepicentre ofthetrade war,has seen higher rates across most marketssince theUS-China temporary trade dealcame into effect.Foreignflowshavebeen mixed over the past week.Over the past week,foreigners pared their holdingsinThailand(Corp + Govt, USD881m) and India(Corp + Govt + SDL, USD594m) in Asia. There were weekly outflows of USD1.3bn from Türkiyeduring the week ending 2 May. In addition,Mexico noted weekly outflows of USD1.58bn during theweek ending6May. In contrast,foreign investorsincreased theirholdings inKorea (USD2.9bn),Hungary (USD1.6bn), South Africa (Corp + Govt, USD155m),andthePhilippines (Corp + Govt,USD34m)debt.Non-resident investors continue to pare their holdingsinMexico government bonds:Foreigninvestors have sold about USD2.75bnworthof Mexico government debt securities since early April,which includes USD1.33bn of outflows in April and afurtherUSD1.42bn of outflows in the first weekof May. Foreign selling was primarily seen in Mexico government bonds (Mbonos) with aboutUSD764m of outflows in April and afurtherUSD1.38m of outflows in the first week of May.Detailed data on security wise holdings of Mbonos,which is available onaweekly basis furtherrevealsthesharp decline in foreign holdings in short-dated Mbonos (with maturitiesofless than two-years) since 27 March with total outflows of USD1.76bn from short-dated Mbonos between 27 Marchand 30 April. In particular, foreign ownership of Mobons 5.75 May-2026 dipped by 5ppt over thisperiod (from 22% to 16%) with outflows of USD1bn.In contrast, 5Y Mbonos(8.5 Feb-2030) recordedcontinuous foreign buying throughout this period with inflows of USD840m and foreign ownershiprising from 20% to 28%. In longer tenors, a similarly strong appetite was evident for 10Y Mbonos(7.75 Nov-2034) where foreign ownership jumped from 44% on 27 March to 46% on 30 April withtotal foreign inflows of USD581m.Sizeable foreign demand for Thailand government debt:Foreign investors bought USD1.4bnworth of Thailand government debt over the past 4 weeks (between 11 April and 9 May, seeChart ofthe week).During this period, non-resident investors bought USD953m worth of Thailandgovernment bonds (ThaiGBs) and USD471m worth of bills. Analysingthedemandfor Thailandgovernment debt (ThaiGBs+bills)by tenor, foreignersfavouredtheshort end of the curve (maturityless than 3Y) with inflows of USD1.76bn.Stronger baht gainexpectations may have ledto sizeableforeignpositioning into this segment.In contrast,both thelong end of the curve (maturity greater than10Y) andthebelly of the curve (maturity between 3Y and 10Y)sawoutflowsof USD171meachinthe same window.Looking at high-frequency data, therehas beensome unwinding of foreignexposure from Thailand local debtover the pastweek.Offshore investors increased their exposure toIndonesia government debt in April:Foreigninflows intoIndoGBsrosetoUSD469m in Aprilfrom USD104m in March(seeFigure 9).Looking atdemand across tenors,theshort end of the curve (maturity less than 5Y)sawinflows of USD254m inApril vs outflows of USD214m in March. The long end of the curve (maturity greater than 10Y)attracted USD118m in April (vsamodestoutflow of USD24m in March).Foreign demand inthebellyof the curve (maturity between 5Y and 10Y)moderated toUSD119m in Aprilvsinflows ofUSD342min March.In central bank bills (SRBIs), foreign holdings of SRBIs declined by USD1.3bn in April after recordingan increase of USD247m in March.Muted foreigndemand for Colombia government debt:There wasnot muchchange intheforeignholdings ofColombia government debt in Aprilrelative to March(seeFigure 8). Foreigndemand remained muted with investors modestly adding USD11m in AprilvsUSD24m in March.Nominal government bonds(TES) recorded outflows worth USD66m in April.Inflation-linked bonds(UVR) noted inflows of USD77m in April vis-à-vis inflows of USD23m in March Source:BNM,Bloomberg,HSBCFigure 9.Foreign inflows into Indonesiagovernment bonds (IndoGBs) in AprilSource:Indonesiabankwebsite,Bloomberg,HSBC-1,500-1,200-900-600-30003006009001,2001,500Oct-24Nov-24Foreign flows (USDm) Source:South Africa government website,Bloomberg,HSBCFigure8.Lack of foreign demandforColombiagovernmentdebt inAprilSource:Colombia government websiteBloomberg,HSBC-600-400-200020040060