流动性｜1-2月“紧资金”格局不会重演
AI智能总结
证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com相关报告2025-05-162025-05-152025-05-13 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准11-2月的资金面会不会重演？................................................................................................................52央行：逆回购到期4860亿元，买断资金或到账...............................................................................103政府债：下周政府债净缴款下降至3979亿元...................................................................................114票据：大行需求仍弱，票据利率整体震荡上行.................................................................................135汇率：统计期内延续升值，中间价降至7.20以下............................................................................136市场资金供需：非银不再抢跑，对资金敏感.....................................................................................147CD：国有行存单净融资再次转负，二级价格略上...........................................................................187.1一级发行市场：本周存单净融资再次转负，存单价格下行........................................................187.2二级交易市场：机构资金预期中性，不再抢跑，非银呈现配置性............................................218风险提示：.............................................................................................................................................22图1. 2019年货币政策偏紧的背景.................................................................................................................5图2. 2019年货币政策偏紧期间央行的操作情况.........................................................................................5图3.年初资金主线逻辑走势.........................................................................................................................6图4. 5月R001的季节性走势........................................................................................................................7图5. 5月国股行融出的季节性情况...............................................................................................................7图6.周内资金走势.........................................................................................................................................7图7.日内资金走势.........................................................................................................................................7图8.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.................................................................................................................8图9.下周资金扰动因素.................................................................................................................................9图10.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................10图11.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................10图12.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................10图13.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................10图14.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................11图15.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................11图16.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.............................................................................................11图17.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................12内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图18.地方政府债净融资进度.....................................................................................................................12图19.政府债发行和缴款日历.....................................................................................................................12图20.票据绝对利率走势.............................................................................................................................13图21.票据相对利率走势.............................................................................................................................13图22.即期汇率相对中间价贬值情况.........................................................................................................14图23. USDCNY、USDCNH掉期点...........................................................................................................14图24. USDCNY和中间价，跌停价之间关系............................................................................................14图25.逆周期因子情况.................................................................................................................................14图26.资金供需情况.....................................................................................................................................15图27.银行体系资金融出情况.....................................................................................................................15图28.国有行资金融出情况..................................................................................................
