利率 | 联合声明后的三点分歧

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com联系人闵志新minzx@ctsec.com相关报告1.《 风 格 钝 化延 续 哑 铃 配置 ， 关 注gamma因子表现》2025-05-182.《流动性｜1-2月“紧资金”格局不会重演》2025-05-173.《高频｜新房销售偏弱，出口指标明显好转》2025-05-17 核心观点❖风险提示：期。 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1联合声明后的三点分歧...........................................................................................................................41.1中美摩擦能否进一步缓和？..............................................................................................................41.2联合声明后，如何看待基本面？......................................................................................................51.3担心央行，还是担心点位？..............................................................................................................72关税谈判超预期，资金维持宽松...........................................................................................................83机构降久期，但做多动能没有改变.....................................................................................................104理财规模延续回升.................................................................................................................................145久期下行，分歧度下行.........................................................................................................................166风险提示.................................................................................................................................................17图1. 5月第二周上海出口集装箱运价指数上升...........................................................................................5图2.中间产品出口增速仍较高.....................................................................................................................6图3.近年对外投资维持高位.........................................................................................................................6图4. 2025年一季度各行业净利润/营业收入中位数....................................................................................6图5. 5月9日以来集运指数（欧线）期货结算价迅速上升.......................................................................7图6.期货结算价（螺纹钢）季节性走势.....................................................................................................7图7.期货结算价（纯碱）季节性走势.........................................................................................................7图8. 10年期国债收益率上行4.42BP至1.68%...........................................................................................9图9. 10年国开债收益率上行4.91BP至1.71%...........................................................................................9图10. 1年与10年国债期限利差扩大1.28BP至22.85BP........................................................................10图11. 1年与10年国开期限利差扩大1.86BP至20.81BP........................................................................10图12.本周二级市场机构行为（亿元）.....................................................................................................11图13.利率债二级交易季节性（基金）.....................................................................................................12图14.利率债二级交易季节性（国有大行）.............................................................................................12图15.利率债二级交易季节性（保险）.....................................................................................................12图16.利率债二级交易季节性（农商行）.................................................................................................12图17.利率债二级交易季节性（股份行）.................................................................................................13图18.利率债二级交易季节性（外资行）.................................................................................................13内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图19.利率债二级交易季节性（城商行）.................................................................................................13图20.利率债二级交易季节性（券商）.....................................................................................................13图21.利率债二级交易季节性（货基）.....................................................................................................13图22.利率债二级交易季节性（理财）.....................................................................................................13图23.利率债二级交易季节性（其他产品类）.........................................................................................14图24.利率债二级交易季节性（其他）.....................................................................................................14图25.理财存续规模周度环比变化.............................................................................................................15图26.理财产品新发规模.............................................................................................................................15图27.理财产品月度规模环比变化（分类型）.........................................................................................15图28.理财产品月度规模环比变化（分风险）.........................................................................................15图29.理财产品破净率统计.........................................................................................................................15图30.货币基金收益率..........................................