提高所罗门群岛财政框架的有效性

Enhancing EffectivenessofSolomon Islands’Fiscal Framework Masafumi Yabara SIP/2025/63 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation forperiodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onJanuary 29, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No25/50. 2025MAY IMFSelected IssuesPaper Asia Pacific Department Enhancing Effectiveness ofSolomon Islands’Fiscal FrameworkPrepared byMasafumi Yabara* Authorized for distribution byNadaChoueiriFebruary 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onJanuary 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/50. ABSTRACT:Solomon Islands faces theimmediate fiscalchallengesofrebuilding cash reserves, improving thequality of public spending, and imposing fiscal discipline on domestic borrowing.To address thesechallengeswhile financing necessary investments, it is an urgent priority to improve the effectiveness ofthefiscalframework, in parallel with theefforts to strengthenbasic public financial management(PFM)functions.Staffanalysis indicates that the current debtceiling of 35percent of GDPremains broadly appropriateas a medium-term debt anchor. Given the weak PFMfoundationand the absence ofeffectiveoperational fiscal rules,staffproposes the introduction ofasimple ex-ante guidelinefor annual budgetformulation,as an interim measure.The proposed guideline sets a ceilingonthe domestically financedprimary budget deficit, to be consistent witha potential fiscal rule covering both domesticandexternal sources.The government should assess ex postwhether the budgetwasimplemented in line with the guideline and whether the fiscal outlook is consistent withthe medium-term anchor. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Masafumi Yabara.2025. “Enhancing Effectiveness of Solomon Islands’ FiscalFramework” IMF SelectedIssues Paper (SIP/2025/63) Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Enhancing Effectiveness ofSolomon Island’sFiscalFramework Solomon Islands Prepared byMasafumi Yabara1 SOLOMON ISLANDS SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared ByMasafumi Yabara (APD) CONTENTS ENHANCING EFFECTIVENESS OF SOLOMON ISLANDS’FISCAL FRAMEWORK________2 A. Fiscal Challenges Facing Solomon Islands______________________________________________2B. Existing Fiscal Framework in Solomon Islands___________________________________________3C. Solomon Islands’ Challenges in Implementing Its Fiscal Framework____________________6D.Enhancing Effectiveness ofSolomon Islands’ Fiscal Framework_________________________7E. Conclusion_____________________________________________________________________________12 TABLES 1. Approved Budgets and Outturns________________________________________________________52. Fiscal Balance and Financing__________________________________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Public Debt Composition, 2017-23______________________________________________________22. Changes in Development Expenditures from Original Budget to Actual, 2021__________53. Calibration of Debt Anchor______________________________________________________________94a. Primary Balance______________________________________________________________________104b. Public Debt___________________________________________________________________________10 ENHANCING EFFECTIVENESS OFSOLOMON ISLANDS’FISCAL FRAMEWORK1 Solomon Islands faces theimmediate fiscalchallengesofrebuilding cash reserves, improving thequality of public spending, and imposing fiscal discipline on domestic borrowing.To address thesechallengeswhilefinancingnecessaryinvestments, it is an urgent priority to improve theeffectiveness ofthefiscalframework, in parallel with theefforts to strengthenbasic publicfinancial management(PFM)functions.Staff analysis indicates that the current debtceilingof35percentof GDPremains broadlyappropriateas a medium-term debtanchor.Given the weakPFMfoundationand the absence ofeffectiveoperational fiscal rules, staff proposes theintroduction ofasimple ex-ante guidelinefor annual budget formulation,as an interim measure.The proposedguideline sets a ceilingonthe domestically financedprimary budget deficit,to beconsistent withapotential fiscal rulecovering both domesticandexternal sources.Thegovernment should assess ex post whether the budgetwasimplemented in line with the guidelineand whether the fiscal outlook is consistent with the medium-term anchor. A.Fiscal Challenges Facing Solomon Islands 1.A series of crises and landmarkevents have significantlydeterioratedSolomon Island’s fiscal position.Thegovernment has been running a deficitinrecent years,driven by increased spendingpressures. These pressures have arisen fromtheneedtorespond tothepandemic,theriot in Honiara, thesuccessful