从太空看全球贸易

Nowcasting Global Tradefrom Space Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke,Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi, andJasper Verschuur WP/25/93 2025MAY IMFWorking Paper Strategy, Policy and ReviewDepartmentand Statistics Department Nowcasting Global Trade from Space Prepared by Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty,Michele Ruta,Mario Saraiva,Alessandra Sozzi, and Jasper Verschuur* Authorized for distribution byMarco Marini andMartin SommerMay2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, itsExecutive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:We introduce a nowcasting model of global maritime trade, leveraging satellite-based big data onvessel movements. This provides a timely indicator of global trade as shipping accounts for about 80 percent ofworldwide merchandise trade by volume. Our approach mimics key features of the way statisticians compiletrade data—measuring the customs value of imported and exported goods, forming import and export pricedeflators, and then estimating import and export volumes. We show how global and regional nowcasts can beobtained using port-level data from IMF PortWatch and highlight important enhancements to the platform sinceits beta launch in November 2023. Finally, we demonstrate how the monthly nowcasts can be used to monitorfragmentation and regionalization in global maritime trade. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Arslanalp et al. (2025). Nowcasting Global Trade from Space.IMF Working Paper25/93. Contents 1.Introduction.................................................................................................................................................22.PortWatch: Data and Recent Enhancements.............................................................................................33.A Nowcasting Model for GlobalMaritime Trade.........................................................................................74.Monitoring Global Trade Trends in Real Time..........................................................................................155.Concluding Remarks.................................................................................................................................19Annex I. Adjusting for Two-Way Containerized Trade (Netting Effect)...............................................................20Annex II. Adjusting for Ballast Water...................................................................................................................26Annex III.Why Are Unit Values Important for Measuring Trade Volume Accurately?........................................28Annex IV. List of Economies...............................................................................................................................29Annex V. Glossary of Maritime Terms................................................................................................................31References..........................................................................................................................................................32 BOXES 1. The Shift in Russian Oil Trade After the War in Ukraine.................................................................................17 FIGURES 1. Netting Adjustment............................................................................................................................................52. Ballast Water Adjustment..................................................................................................................................63. From Physical Volume to Trade Estimates.......................................................................................................74. Unit Values of Traded Goods by Vessel Type, 2019-24...................................................................................95. Nowcasting Global Trade Value and Volume, 2020-24..................................................................................116. Share of Maritime Trade in Trade Volume by Region, 2019...........................................................................127. Nowcasting Global Economic Activity, 2020-24..............................................................................................148. Share of Trade Between U.S.-Leaning and China-Leaning Blocs, 2019-24...................................................169. Exports of the China-Leaning Bloc, 2019-24..................................................................................................1610. Share of Regional Trade, 2019-24................................................................................................................1811. Regional Trade by Vessel Type, 2019-24................