萨摩亚实际国内生产总值

Nowcasting Real GDP inSamoa Geoffrey Michael Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian Nield, EucharistMuaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, and AiuluTolovaa WP/25/92 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025MAY IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development NowcastingRealGDP in SamoaPrepared byGeoffrey Michael Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian Nield, Eucharist Muaulu,Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, and Aiulu Tolovaa Authorized for distribution by Natan EpsteinMay 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bankof Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture marketsurvey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the estimation of thepresent and near-term forecast. It employs standard nowcasting methods such as Bridge, Mixed DataSampling (MIDAS), and Unrestricted MIDAS (U-MIDAS). All methods significantly outperform the naiveforecasts. Our analysis show that forecast combination of the three methods minimizes the root mean squarederror (RMSE) for both full and pre-COVID-19 samples, while U-MIDAS performs better during crises,particularly in identifying turning points during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening nowcasting capacity isimportant for Samoa, where real GDP data release experiences up to a 90-day lag. Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa Prepared byGeoffrey Michael Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian Nield,Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, and AiuluTolovaa1 Contents Glossary...............................................................................................................................................................3I. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................4II. Samoa’s Economy and GDP–Stylized Facts..............................................................................................5III. Nowcasting Real GDP for Samoa.................................................................................................................8IV. Concluding Remarks...................................................................................................................................14References.........................................................................................................................................................16 Glossary I. Introduction Theconsiderable lagin the dissemination ofSamoanofficial statisticshasunderscored the necessityofdevelopinga nowcasting framework to estimate Samoa's real grossdomesticproduct (GDP) in atimely manner.GDP growth, due to its comprehensive scope, is akeyindicator for guiding the policymakingprocess. However, itisimportant to acknowledge that the availability of GDP data markedly differs acrossnations, influencing the promptness of economic assessments and decision-making processes. Specifically, inSamoa, GDP figures are released roughly90days, orthreemonths, following the end of a reference quarter.Suchlagsin data release, although typical of many economies,hinder the ability to conduct real-time economicanalysis and formulate policy, particularly in swiftly evolving economic contexts. This scenario emphasizes thecritical need fornowcastingmethods capable of delivering accurate and prompt economic trend predictions,even in the absence of the latest data. Samoa's experience with delayed GDP data releaseis a common issueof data timeliness and completeness,affectingmanylow-income countries (LICs)and emerging marketeconomies (EMEs). Nowcasting, a method that relies onreadily, timelyavailable data to forecast real GDPbefore theofficial statistics are released, iswell-suited to this context.Given the notablelagsin publishing officialreal GDP figures, a variety of high-frequency economic indicators act as a crucial link throughout theforecastperiod in Samoa. Thesehigh-frequency data encompass a wide array of variables, including, but not limited to,tourism statistics, remittances, agricultural production market surveys, external sector indicators,fiscal,financial,and monetary variables, and an El Niño indicator.1Utilizing nowcasting techniquesallowspolicymakers and analysts to acquire a more immediate grasp of the economic landscapethroughprovidingadditionalinputsto macroeconomic surveillanceand sofacilitatingamore timely a