幸运星娱乐（LUCK）：四月客流量小幅回升但仍处下降状态

USA | Lifestyle & Growth PlatformsLucky Strike LUCK's April Foot Traffic Small Recovery ButStill Down Based on our latest foot traffic data, trends in April, while still negative, havecontinued to improve slightly from February and March. April posted a -2.5%YoY decline in visits over the 3-month rolling period vs a -10.6% decrease ona 2-yr stack. This follows a -2.8% and a -4.9% decline in March and February,respectively, on a 3-month rolling basis. Foot Traffic Again Negative in April.Based on our latest foot traffic data, the month of April isagain negative posting a -2.5% decline in visits over the 3-month rolling period. This represents aslight improvement following March which saw a -2.8% decline in foot traffic levels. However, itlooks like we're past the trough seen in in February which posted a -4.9% decline in YoY foot trafficlevels. On a 2-yr stack, April was down -10.6%, following decreases of -13.0% in March, and -15.5%in February. FY Guide Pulled Due to Volatile Macro Backdrop.LUCK reported 3Q results which fell short ofexpectations. Revenue grew ~1% YoY to $340M but fell short of cons expectations of $358Mprimarily due to weaker corporate spending trends. Same-store comp also declined -5.6%, down forthe 2nd consecutive quarter. LUCK mgmt. decided to pull FY guidance due to the short-cycle natureof the business and lack of visibility on NT demand. LUCK's previously issued revenue guidanceof $1.23-1.28B and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $390-430M. However, with the launch of theirsummer season pass (with pre-sale up 200% YoY) and as LUCK begins to lap easier comps, mgmt.expects improved performance this summer. Looking Ahead.LUCK continues to make progress on converting Bowlero locations to the morepremium Lucky Strike brand, with five conversions done in 3Q and 13 more planned for May.LUCK also acquired a family entertainment center and a water park in Visalia, California. Given thecompany's strong M&A track record, these assets could provide upside in future quarters. Withshares near their lowest valuation in trading history, combined with a favorable M&A backdropand solid fundamentals, we believe LUCK shares offer asymmetric risk/reward. As summerapproaches, LUCK is well-positioned due to recent acquisitions and strong season pass sales. Randal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.com Corey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.com Carlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.com Ty-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8339 | tjohnson2@jefferies.com Mina Solujic * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 444-4298 | msolujic@jefferies.com Kylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.com Mantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.com The Long View: Lucky Strike Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •We believe Lucky Strike's strong brand, large and growing center footprint,and leading entertainment experience are likely to further bolster itscompetitivepositioninginthelargeandhighlyfragmentedbowlingindustry. Upside Scenario,$28, +206% Base Case,$18, +97% Downside Scenario,$5, -45% •Continuedindustrygrowthandongoingconsolidation by Lucky Strike.•OngoingunitgrowththroughM&Aandgreenfield activities.•Marginexpansionthroughongoingimprovements to existing centers, efficienciesgained through QMS, and greater customerengagement through gamification driving fixedcost leverage.•$18 PT, based on F'26E EBITDA of $427M, ~11xEV/EBITDA. •Consumer interest in bowling increases fasterthan expected, driving upside to sales.•Gamification through app generates strongerengagementandfrequencythanexpected,driving sales higher.•Unit expansion is more robust than modeled.•QMS drives greater efficiency improvementsthan anticipated.•Greater fixed cost leverage on higher sales.•$28 Upside PT, based on F'26E EBITDA of$470M, ~14x EV/EBITDA. •Higher wage expense pressures EBITDA marginexpansion.•M&A valuation multiples increase meaningfullyandgreenfieldeconomicsareworsethananticipated.•Fixed cost leverage is lower than expected.•$5 Downside PT, based on F'26E EBITDA of$363M, ~6x EV/EBITDA. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top material issue(s): 1)Energy Usage.As the largest operator of bowling centers (by number oflocations) in the world, we believe LUCK is focused on sustainability and managing its energy usage moreefficiently. •New "greenfield" center openings•Additional center acquisitions•International expansion Company Target(s): 1)Key initiatives include the installation of solar panels on bowling center roofs,installation of LED lighting fixtures, installation of Energy Management Systems, and reducing the use ofdisposables in increasing the use of reusable. Qs to mgmt: 1)What are your primary focuses from an ESG perspective?2)What additional effortscan you take to reduce energy usage?3)How does your energy usage compare to other bowling centeroperators in the indu