初步观点德国箱板纸（纸箱用纸）价格在5月上涨40欧元 吨

EUROPE | Paper & Packaging First View: Germany Containerboard (Paperfor Boxes) Prices +€40/t in May Conclusion What's New?Containerboard (box paper) prices in Germany. Recycled containerboard (Testliner):Increased +€40/t (or +6%) MoM. Virgin Containerboard (Kraftliner):Stable MoM, but price hikes announced.Potentially follows recycled with a lag. Waste Paper (OCC - old boxes):+€48/t MoM to €182/t (from €134/t).However, we think its peaked & eases from July. JEF View:We see 2nd EU hike as positive for cboard & box makers (IP/SW/MNDI/STERV/SCAB), with most investors expecting pricing stability, dueto trade uncertainty, EU overcapacity & new supply. Limited US investorfocus, but some EU investors had become more optimistic about a costpush hike over the last 2 weeks. Germany recycled cboard increased +€40/t (or +6%), driven by wastepaper (OCC) raw mat cost push. Cost pressures on EU recycled mills wereunderappreciated by investors, and JEFe c15% of capacity was makingcash losses. The hike was needed, but expect OCC to ease from here. Thiscould result in the 2nd cboard hike being given back in 2H if demand ismuted. If virgin (kraftliner) follows higher in June, it would be clear positive formargins of virgin biased players like Mondi/SCA/STERV (lesser extent SW),who use less OCC. Cole Hathorn, CFA * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8520 | chathorn@jefferies.comPhilip Ng, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.comJohn Dunigan ^ | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2343 | jdunigan@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Cole Hathorn, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, Philip Ng, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, John Dunigan, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Cole Hathorn, CFA is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst. As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedMay 15, 2025 , 05:02 ET.Recommendation DistributedMay 15, 2025 , 05:02 ET. For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Explanation of Jefferies Ratings Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period. Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or morewithin a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average securityprice consistently below $10