反弹后的重新梳理以及谁应从中获利

HY Basics Post-Rally Re-Rack and WhoShould Take Advantage The rally has driven valuations in Basics drastically tighter,especially in certain cohorts of the market. We explore somecredits that have tightened too much and re-rack ourthoughts on the names. We provide views on which creditsshould take advantage of the more supportive new issuemarket. Edward Brucker, CFA+1 212 526 4435edward.brucker@barclays.comBCI, US Abanikash Rayaji, CFA+1 212 526 9843abanikash.rayaji@barclays.comBCI, US Overview The recent rally has been strong andswift.While the basics nature of our credits have kept somewide, there has been a dichotomy between which have led the rally and which have lagged.Those that have led the rally in basics are higher quality, while those that have lagged havestructural issues or are higher-beta CCCs (to state the obvious). Although trade tensions haveeased, we remain cautious on the economic outlook and expect weaker results in 2Q, given asoftApril month during the height of the volatility. We are also starting to see some cracks in theconsumer in parts of the sector. We provide our thoughts on some of the credits that we thinkhave gone a little too far. In the same vein, new issuance has increased. We find a number of companies that can takeadvantage of the current market strength to push out maturity walls. This would be adequatelyprudent in the current environment. We comment on some of those names below. Ratings and Trade Recommendations •Sell SOLEIN unsecuredsafterrally••Underweight CE 2028s-2033s••Sell GRA secureds, buy GRA unsecureds••Downgrade TKOCN to MW from OW••AffirmBWY 1L at MW and 2L at UW• Chemicals Chemicals have been a major focus during 1Q earnings, but it was not as big of a flush quarteras we would have thought. We do think the volatility in April will lead to a moredifficult2Q, andunless we get more clarity ontariffsbetween now and July, we do not expect many to provideFY25 guidance. Those that have not tightened are primarily lower quality CCC LBOs and TiO2names. We are a bit surprised high-beta issuers have lagged in the market context, but we dothink some of the higher-quality names have tightened too much, primarily CE. Too Tight •CE:The CE step coupon bonds have rallied to under 200bp and just 30bp back of where they•were trading before being downgraded to HY. The newer HY bond issues remain wide of thesteps, which is fair, given the potential for further downgrade risk. However, our view thatboth segments (AC and EM) have structural issues makes this rally well overdone. See ourrecent note (Celanese (CE): Squeeze into the Kitchen Sink) for more views on the credit. Wereiterate our UW on CE 2028s-2033s. We also reiterate our Market Weight rating on theshorter-dated 2026s-2027s, as they remain tender candidates. FIGURE 1. CE Step and Non-Step Bonds versus BBs Open in Barclays Live Chart Source:Credit- Barclays Trading, S&P Global Market Intelligence;Bloomberg Indices- Bloomberg •SOLEIN:We remain constructive on SOLEIN in the long term and have a favorable view of the•IPO strategy. But the bonds, both secureds and unsecureds, have tightened in dramatically.Both bonds (secureds are B3/B- and unsecureds are Caa2/CCC+) trade well tight relative totheir ratings. We think the secureds are likely closer to fair value, but the unsecureds likelytrade too tight. We recommend selling (or at least lightening up) SOLEIN unsecureds to takeadvantage of this recent rally. Open in Barclays Live Chart Source:Credit- Barclays Trading, S&P Global Market Intelligence;Bloomberg Indices- Bloomberg •GRA Secureds:The W.R. Grace secureds have done very well in the recent rally. We like GRA•as a credit and view the catalyst business as specialty withdifficultend markets. Thecompany hasshiftedfocus towards strengthening the balance sheet, which we view as asignificant positive and toneshiftin strategy. We think the yield pickup for the unsecuredslooks attractive, and we recommend selling the GRA secureds and buying the GRAunsecureds now that the spreaddifferentialbetween the two is at multi-year wides. Issuers that Should Take Advantage of Market Strength Metals & Mining High Yield Metals and Mining performance was mixed in 1Q. Copper and gold were extremelystrong in the face of market volatility, and the HY credits in those segments have fared well.Meanwhile, iron ore and steel have lagged, though less from lower commodity prices and morefrom idiosyncratic issues related to specific companies (eg, MINAU and CLF). Too Tight •TKOCN:Taseko went from the mid-April lows of $95.5 back to its pre-"Liberation Day" trading•levels around $101/102. While we fundamentally like Taseko, especially with the progressbeing done at Florence, the bonds look less attractive at current levels. We think it is tradingcloser to fair value, given the Gibraltar single-mine risk while Florence is not up and running.We downgrade our rating on TKOCN to MW from OW. FIGURE 5. TKOCN Bond Price Open in B