2025年全球养老金资产研究

Section2AssetAllocationExecutivesummary Section3DB/DCSplit LimitationsofrelianceSection4Methodology© 2025 Thinking Ahead Institute. All rights reserved. TheThinkingAheadInstituteTheThinkingAheadInstitute(TAI)isanot-for-profitresearchandinnovationnetworkmotivatedtoinfluencetheinvestmentindustry forthegoodofsaversworldwideandtomobilisecapitalforasustainablefuture.Sinceitsestablishmentin2015,almost90investmentorganisationshavecollaboratedtobringthisvisiontolightthroughdesigningfit-for-purposeinvestmentstrategies,workingtowardsbetterorganisationaleffectivenessandstrengtheningstakeholderlegitimacy. This report was produced in collaboration with the WTW MontevideoResearch Services team.TheThinkingAheadGroupresearchteamTimHodgsonRogerUrwinMarisaHallJessicaGao© 2025 Thinking Ahead Institute. All rights reserved. AnastassiaJohnsonAndreaCaloisi OverviewandkeyfindingsExecutivesummary OverviewThe study covers 22pension markets in theworld (P22). They havepension assets ofUSD 58,511 bnP22P22 marketsAustralia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong,India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia,Mexico, Netherlands, South Africa, SouthKorea, Spain, Switzerland, UK, US© 2025 Thinking Ahead Institute. All rights reserved. 79%The Gini coefficient ofglobal pension assetsreflecting theconcentration in fewmarkets 91%of P22 assetsare in the sevenlargest markets P22 MarketsP195Outside the P22 weestimate there is anadditionalUSD 3-5tnof pensionassets A deeper analysis isperformed for the P7, withassets ofUSD 53,517 bnP7 marketsAustralia, Canada, Japan, Netherlands,Switzerland, UK, US Overview of P22 MarketsUSD 58,511 bnTotal P22 assets estimated to year end 202465%The US is the largest market,with a share of 64.9% of P22assets, followed by Japan andCanada with 5.64% and5.58% respectivelyThe US, Japan,Canada and UKrepresent 81.5% ofall pension assets82%68%Ratio of pension assets toGDP of these economies%y/y increase in 2024 P22assets from USD 55,787 bn4.9%The assets growth rate of US, Japan, Canada and UK were 7.2%,It is important to note the impact of currency exchange rates whenmeasuring the growth of pension assets in USD as, in many cases, theresults vary significantly with growth rates in local currency terms.© 2025 Thinking Ahead Institute. All rights reserved. P22 the previous yearReturn for a 60% globalequities / 40% global bondsreference portfolio as ofDecember 2024 (in USD)10.5%-1.4%, 3.0% and-2.0% respectively in 2024 (in USD) Overview of P7 MarketsUS and Australia havehigher allocations toequities than the rest ofP7 marketsJapan, Netherlandsand the UK havehigher allocation tobondsAsset AllocationThe asset allocation pattern has changed since2003. Allocation to equities and bonds hasdecreased while investments in other assetsgrew during the same period.Growth rate of DC assetsGrowth rate of DB assets45%33%20%2%EquitiesBondsOtherCashAverage global asset allocation of the seven,largest markets at the end of 2024© 2025 Thinking Ahead Institute. All rights reserved. P7 59%6.7%DC is dominant inAustralia and the US. Antrend of increase towardsDC allocation is shownacross all marketsof DC assets represented intotal P7 pension assetsin the last ten years2.1%in the last ten years1 1IncludesIRAs.2Doesnotincludetheunfundedbenefitobligationofcorporatepensionplans(accountreceivables).3Sourcechangedin2024edition.Numbermightnotbecomparabletoreportsofprioreditions.4Doesnotconsiderassetsofinsurancecompanies.5Onlyincludespensionassetsforcompanypensionschemes.6OnlyincludesEnterpriseAnnuityassets.7Onlyincludespensionassetsfromclosedentities.8Nowincludes Individual Assets. Number might not be comparable to reports of prior editions.Total P22 Assets are expected to increase from USD55,787 bn (actual 2023 year-end) to USD 58,511 bn(estimated 2024 year-end).The US is the largest market, with a share of 64.9% ofP22 assets, followed by Japan and Canada with 5.64%and 5.58% respectively. Global asset owner landscapeAsset owners globally controlUSD 188 trillionPension funds, sovereign wealth funds and endowmentsand foundations clearly qualify as asset owners, whilemutual funds and insurance funds partly qualify.Anassetownerhasfourqualifyingcharacteristics:▪Worksdirectlyforadefinedgroupofbeneficiaries/savers/investorsasthemanageroftheirassetsinafiduciarycapacityunderdelegatedresponsibility▪Workswithasponsoringentity(government,governmentaffiliate,companyornot-for-profit)▪Workswithinexplicitlawandpossessesanimplicitsocietallicensetooperatebecauseofitssocietaltrustandlegitimacy▪Deliversmission-specificoutcomestobeneficiariesandstakeholdersintheformofvariouspaymentsorbenefitsintothefutureWhat is an asset owner?63.013.72.368.940.2Pension FundsSovereign WealthFundsEndowments &FoundationsMutual Funds (incETF)Insurance FundsAsset Owners-strictly definedAsset Owners-loosely defined© 2025 Thinking Ahead Institute. All rights reserved. Read more about asset ownersThe Asset Owner ofTomorrowProvides insight into thecomplexity