汽车行业4Q24及1Q25财报总结：乘用车、零部件依然在规模增长通道，汇兑、原材料、年降等因素有所扰动

汽车2025年05月15日推荐 （维持）证券分析师：张程航电话：021-20572543邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360519070003证券分析师：夏凉电话：021-20572532邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522030001证券分析师：李昊岚邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360524010003联系人：林栖宇邮箱：linxiyu@hcyjs.com联系人：张睿希邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com行业基本数据股票家数(只)232总市值(亿元)44,538.57流通市值(亿元)33,582.47相对指数表现1M6M6.6%9.3%1.7%11.6%相关研究报告《汽车行业重大事项点评：4月需求维持同比增势，新能源渗透率新高》《汽车行业周报（20250505-20250511）：汽零、机器人行情复苏，全年销量展望乐观》《汽车行业周报（20250421-20250427）：上海车展带动板块反弹，中大型SUV云集》24/0724/1024/1225/022024-05-15~2025-05-14汽车沪深300华创证券研究所 %绝对表现相对表现-13%4%20%36%24/05 占比%0.034.434.2012M27.5%19.7%2025-05-132025-05-112025-04-2725/05 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录1.概述......................................................................................................................................62.行业：政策延续，销量连续两个季度同比两位数增长..................................................82.1行业基本面...............................................................................................................82.2估值及持仓.............................................................................................................103.乘用车：受益于规模和汇兑............................................................................................133.1营收.........................................................................................................................133.2毛利率.....................................................................................................................133.3费用率.....................................................................................................................153.4净利.........................................................................................................................173.5净现金流.................................................................................................................194.零部件：依然处于规模、盈利同增的成长渠道............................................................204.1营收.........................................................................................................................204.2毛利率.....................................................................................................................214.3费用率.....................................................................................................................224.4净利.........................................................................................................................254.5净现金流.................................................................................................................264.6分企业情况.............................................................................................................275.商用车：客车受益于出口的增长，卡车景气度近两个季度表现一般........................295.1营收.........................................................................................................................295.2毛利率.....................................................................................................................295.3费用.........................................................................................................................305.4净利.........................................................................................................................305.5净现金流.................................................................................................................306.投资建议............................................................................................................................327.风险提示............................................................................................................................33 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1：汽车细分行业上市公司样本构成（截至2025年4月29日）..............................6图表2：2015-1Q25年汽车批发销量及增速（%）...............................................................8图表3：2015-1Q25年汽车季度销量及增速（%）...............................................................8图表4：新能源车季度批发销量及增速.................................................................................8图表5：燃油车季度批发销量及增速.....................................................................................8图表6：2015-1Q25年乘用车季度销量增速（%）...............................................................9图表7：2015-1Q25年商用车季度销量增速（%）...............................................................9图表8：狭义乘用车月度批发增速与M1增速......................................................................9图表9：渠道库存月度变化（按批发-零售-出口）...............................................................9图表10：2015年起模拟月度总渠道库存（万辆）............................................................10图表11：2015年起模拟月度燃油渠道库存（万辆）........................................................10图表12：平均折扣率中位数（%，截至4/25）..................................................................10图表13：折扣金额中位数（元，截至4/25）.....................................................................10图表14：汽车行业基金持仓情况（截至1Q25）...............................................................11图表15：汽车行业基金持仓占比排名情况.................................................................