巴西经济：巴西央行会议纪要相当中性的传达

Brazil Economics Economics Brazil BCBMinutes:A fairly neutral communication ◆Wesee theMonetary Policy Committee (Copom)Minutes released today ashaving limitedimplicationsrelative tocurrentmarket pricing Daniel LavardaHead of Brazil EconomicsResearchBanco HSBC S.A.daniel.lavarda@hsbc.com+55 11 2802 2640 ◆Thedocumentdelivered amoredovishtone,in line with changes expressedin the communiqué; we see theoutlookfor future policy decisions as ‘open’ ◆Copomanticipatespolicy tighteningimpacton economic activity; de-anchoringof inflation expectationssupports casefor additional hike in June Is itsymmetric or asymmetric after all? The minutes ofthe7 MayMonetary Policy Committee (Copom)meeting came outearliertoday.Overall,wesee themessagein the minutesas market neutral andcompatible with theone in the communiquéreleased soon afterthemeeting.We sawthat communiquéasleaningto thedovishside, as it gaveanindication ofthe Copom’s intention to end the current tightening cycle sooner rather than later.Localmarketsare pricing 15bp of hikes in June, which is roughly a 60% probability of a 25bp hike.The messageinthelatestminutes is broadly consistent withsuchpricing, we believe. Thus, we don´t see today’s minutesaschallenging market participants’convictionsor analysts’ forecastson terminal rates.Wecall for a terminal rateof15.00%,withan additional 25bp hikeatthe next meetingon 18 June. Aspreviously explained, wesee the extension and magnitude of the current tightening cycleas fundamentally determined byexternal factors, embedded into the BRL dynamics.Aweaker/strongerUSD globallyon the back of tariffs disputes and/or resolutionsmight push terminal rates below/above ourforecasts, with domestic factors taking a backseat.Fundamentally, we find the minutes today asunderscoringthe data-dependent character ofthe pendingJune decision. There werea fewnoteworthy comments.Most importantly, the Copom’s assessment on both the externalsector and the domestic economic activity dynamics havetaken a dovish shift. This is not surprising, giventhe recent flow of events.In that, the Copom recognizes “The uncertainty has materialized much morestrongly than expected and now we foresee a more pronounced slowdownin the US economy”, inopposition to the “orderly slowdown” previously. On the domestic frontwe find particularly relevant the greater confidence expressed in the minutes thatthe monetary policy tightening is indeed producing the desired effects on domestic economic activity.In itsown words, monetary policy “has already contributed and will continue contributing to the growthmoderation.”Inaddition, the “signs suggesting an incipient moderation” in the previous document gaveroom for “observing an incipient moderation”. Now, the list of factors includes “the fx market, the corporatebalance-sheets, and the labour market”, besides the previous “credits market and confidence surveys”.The emphasis here is the “labour market”,though herewe find it hard to identify concrete signals ofmoderation.Overall, we findthe Copom’scommentsastilted to the dovish side. On the credit side, the minutes brought the first appraisal ofnew regulationson payroll loans. Thishasbeen discussed by market participants as another factor that can help prevent the deceleration of Disclosures &Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in theDisclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. domesticdemand and, hence,support the casefor higher terminal rates. The Copom sees it as having “a moderate impact on theaggregated demand”–another dovish message.In that, the Copom sees “some impact on growth”, but “mostly through an increasein disposable income from debt swap”.In addition, the Copom sees the payroll loans regulation as “more structural than cyclical”change. Another dovish message. At paragraphs13 and 14, the Copom provides adescription ofcurrent and expected inflation. In both cases, we find comments asmore streamlined versus theprevious versions.The mainhighlights, in our view, are the comments on core inflation measures, whichhave deteriorated in recent prints. The Copom sees those as “above what would be compatible with the inflation target for months,corroborating the view of an inflation pressured by domesticdemand”.These assessments areto the hawkishside. We find the uncertainty regarding the symmetry on the balance of inflation risks a more hawkish pushback.On a final note,paragraph16 discusses theCopom’s assessment on the balance of risks for inflation.This is relevant, because itrelates toone ofthe material changes in the communiqué released soon after the meeting. In that, the number of risk factors to the upside andto thedownside were the same: three. That led us to believe the balance had become symmetric, comingfroman asymmetric one inMarch. I reality, it was bit more complex than that. According to the minutes, theCopomdiscussed “whether it still remained slightlyasymmetric, but less