圣基茨和尼维斯：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；圣基茨和尼维斯执行主任的发言

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith St. Kitts and NevisFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEWashington, DC – May 13, 2025The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for St. Kitts and NevisThe authorities haveconsented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.Following the postpandemic rebound, the economy is facing challenges. Real GDP growthmoderated to 1.5 percent in 2024, reflecting lower contributions from tourism and governmentservices, while inflation eased to 1 percent. The fiscal deficit increased to 11 percent of GDPin 2024, mainly driven by a sharp decline in CitizenshipbyInvestment (CBI) revenue amidrecent reforms aimed at strengthening the CBI program. The current account deficit wideneddue to lower CBI inflows. Meanwhile, credit growth accelerated on the back of pentupdemand, especially in mortgage loans, amid increasing competition. Groundwork is ongoingfor a potentially transformative geothermal project.In 2025, economic growth is projected to strengthen to 2 percent supported by expandingtourism, while inflation is expected to remain stable.In the medium term, growth is forecast torise to 2½ percent, benefiting from large energy projects. Nonetheless, fiscal deficits areforecasted to remain high in the medium term, driven by expectations of structurally lower CBIrevenue, resulting in public debt exceeding 70 percent of GDP by 2030.Nearterm risks to growth are tilted to the downside, but progress in fostering renewableenergy provides upside potential over the medium term. The uncertainty and volatility of CBIrevenue pose a significant twosided risk, but a further decline in CBI revenue would pressurefiscal accounts. Downside risks include a slowdown in key source markets for tourism, globalfinancial instability, and commodity price volatility. The economy is highly exposed to naturaldisasters. On the other hand, the energy projects could foster growth and fiscal revenue in themedium term.Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members,usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, anddiscusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters,the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.Since the issuance of the Staff Report, economic growth has been marked down, reflecting the impactof trade tensions combined with their effects on global policy uncertainty and global financial conditions,primarily through tourism and FDI (see the Supplement). Executive Board AssessmentExecutive Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to prudent policy reforms andstressed that the significant challenges the economy is facing require a multiprongedapproach to address low growth and fiscal sustainability, while safeguarding financial stabilityand the external position.Directors encouraged the authorities to implement a prompt and decisive fiscal consolidationto keep public debt below the regional debt ceiling and reduce reliance on theCitizenshipbyInvestment Program (CBI). This would create space for capital expenditure,resilience against natural disasters, and contingent liabilities. Directors stressed that fiscalconsolidation should be driven by tax revenue mobilization and reductions in currentexpenditures, anchored by fiscal rules. Greater diversification of funding sources would alsohelp to lengthen debt maturities and lower financing costs. Directors supported the authorities’plan to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to absorb upsides in CBI revenue and called forcontinuing improvements in the CBI framework, including its transparency. They alsowelcomed the authorities’ initiatives to implement reforms to improve the sustainability of theSocial Security Fund.Directors underscored that further progress is needed to strengthen the financial sector,including to reduce NPLs and meet the ECCB’s prudential requirements. They emphasizedthe importance of continuing to strengthen the balance sheet of the systemic bank and torevitalize its business model. Directors also called for reforms of the Development Bank,building on the authorities’ work in this area. They stressed the need to monitor rapid creditgrowth and further strengthen the regulation and oversight of credit unions. It will also beimportant to make additional progress in strengthening the AML/CFT framework.Directors emphasized that structural reforms and improved preparedness for natural disastersare crucial to boost potential growth. They stressed that reforms are necessary to enhance theefficiency of government services, improve credit access, and better align labor skills withmarket demands. Directors noted that accelerating the energy transition would help increasecompetitiveness. Finally, they underscored the need to enhance the investment and themultilayered