对拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的能源征税和补贴

TAXING AND SUBSIDIZING ENERGY INLATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INSIGHTS FROM A TOTAL CARBON PRICE APPROACH TAXING AND SUBSIDIZINGENERGY IN LATIN AMERICAAND THE CARIBBEAN: INSIGHTS FROM A TOTAL CARBON PRICE APPROACH Copyright © 2025, International Bank forReconstruction and Development / World Bank1818 H Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20433, United States of AmericaTelephone: (202) 473-0000Internet: www.worldbank.orgIn Spanish: www.bancomundial.orgEmail: feedback@worldbank.org Rights Reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the WorldBank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracyof the data included in this publication. Rights and Permissions The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encouragesthe dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions ofthis work promptly, provided the sources are acknowledged. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank (2025), Taxing and subsidizing energy in Latin America and the Caribbean:Insights from a Total Carbon Price Approach. Washington DC. Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS--------------------------------------------------------------------4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY-------------------------------------------------------------------51. USING TOTAL CARBON PRICES TO DRIVE ATRANSFORMATIONIN ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN LAC---------------------------------------------91.1. ENERGY PRICES AT THE CENTER-----------------------------------------------------------------------131.2. ALIGNING ENERGY PRICES WITH CO2EMISSIONS----------------------------------------------------171.3. A COMPREHENSIVE BOTTOM-UP APPROACH--------------------------------------------------------172. INSIGHTS FROM TOTAL CARBON PRICES IN THE LAC REGION-----------------------222.1. THE PRICE OF FUEL-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONSIN THE REGION ISPOSITIVE, ON AVERAGE-------------------------------------------------------------------------------232.2. THERE IS SCOPE TO RAISE TCPs-----------------------------------------------------------------------242.3. INDIRECT PRICING INSTRUMENTS ARE NOT ALIGNEDWITH FUEL EMISSIONS---------------------------------------------------------------------------------273. REFORMING ENERGY TAXES AND SUBSIDIES TOENHANCE TCPS: IMPACTS AND SECTORAL CHALLENGES--------------------------343.1. MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS: FISCAL REVENUE,ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND CO2 EMISSIONS----------------------------------------------------------363.2. ROADMAPS FOR POLICY REFORM ANDSECTORAL CHALLENGES-------------------------------------------------------------------------------414. THE WELFARE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONSOF TOTAL CARBON PRICE REFORMS-------------------------------------------------494.1. WHICH FUEL TCP REFORMS MATTER MOST AND TO WHOM?--------------------------------------534.2. THE WELFARE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTSOF INCREASING AND ALIGNING TCPS-----------------------------------------------------------------575. CONCLUDING REMARKS AND THE FUTURE AGENDAFOR POLICY AND RESEARCH----------------------------------------------------------626. REFERENCES---------------------------------------------------------------------------------677. ANNEXES-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------75ANNEX A. COUNTRY DETAILED ESTIMATES BY FUELAND BY FISCAL INSTRUMENT------------------------------------------------------------------76ANNEX B. A MODEL OF THE ENERGY TRANSITIONAND CARBON PRICES---------------------------------87ANNEX C: ADDITIONAL TABLES AND FIGURES FORWELFARE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS-------------------------------------------------107 Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Daniel Navia Simon (Senior Economist, ELCMU),Carolina Mejía-Mantilla (Senior Economist, ELCPV), Ruth Llovet Montañés (Economist, ELCPV),and Anna-Maria Göth (Junior Professional Officer, ELCMU). Overall guidance was provided byBill Maloney (Chief Economist LCR, LCRCE), Oscar Calvo Gonzalez (Regional Director, ELCDR),Doerte Doemeland (Practice Manager, ELCMU), and Carlos Rodríguez Castelán (PracticeManager, ELCPV). The core team included Ana Francisca Urrutia (Consultant, ELCMU), Gioiade Melo (Consultant, ELCMU), and Lucía Echeverría (Consultant, ELCPV). Gustavo CanavireBacarreza (Senior Economist, ELCPV) was co-TTL in the early stages of this project. The extended team, contributing mainly to sections 2 and 3, includes the following: (1) Chile,CPAT Analysis: Daniel Esteban Bastidas Cordova (Consultant, EMFTX); (2) TCP calculationswith R: Sahil Gill (Consultant, EMFTX); (3) Jamaica, CPAT Analysis: Zoe Claude ColetteBerger (Temporary, EFICT); (4) TCP guidance: Alexandra Andrea Maite Campmas (Economist,EMFTX); (5) Mexico: Santiago Andres Justel (