能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS供应02炼厂开工全球炼厂检修国内炼厂产量与商品量 进出口国内燃料油进出口数据全球高硫燃料油进出口数据全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 价格及价差亚太区域现货FOB价格欧洲区域现货FOB价格美国地区燃料油现货价格纸货与衍生品价格燃料油现货价差全球燃料油裂解价差全球燃料油纸货月差 需求国内外燃料油需求数据 库存全球燃料油现货库存 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述◆周度回顾：本周全球燃料油价格从底部反弹，裂解、月差小幅走强，同时高低硫强弱对比出现边际变化，低硫估值保持略微强于高硫。◆周度展望：本周燃料油价格总体随原油价格大幅低开之后从底部稳定反弹。当前，原油仍然是拖累燃料油估值的核心因素，OPEC的增产以及市场对海外需求的担忧是目前最明显的利空。而从燃料油自身的基本面来看，由于目前全球仍有大型炼厂检修，以及当前处于船燃、发电的需求旺季，总体供需结构相对稳定，因此当原油价格走势回归稳定后，预计燃料油价格的波动将由自身基本面情况主导。高硫燃料油方面，当前中东方向的高硫燃料油出口数量近几周保持稳定，只是需要注意船燃市场方面，加注价格的溢价开始回落，同时中国方面的二次原料需求可能将表现不及往年，这些拖累接下来高硫的价格表现。低硫燃料油方面，非洲方向的出口数量有明显增长，部分抵消了前期巴西、印尼等地出口下降的利好，但由于前期低硫市场在2~4月份存在船燃需求疲软以及供应宽松的问题导致其估值偏低，再加上近期新加坡市场加注价格相对FOB价格走强可能预示着船燃需求转好，因此出口增长的利空预计不会导致价格出现明显的下探趋势。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures炼厂开工02-1903-0303-1303-2304-0204-1204-2205-0205-1405-2606-0706-1806-3007-1307-2408-05原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周）202120222023201820192020 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球炼厂检修0200040006000800010000120001400001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球CDU装置检修量2018201920202022202320240200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球加氢裂化装置检修量201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内炼厂燃料油产量与商品量01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：产量：中国（月）2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：商品量：中国（月）20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内外燃料油需求数据01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：船供：销量：新加坡（月）20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 库存04 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油现货库存0500010000150002000025000300003500001-0101-1301-2602-0802-2103-0503-1603-2704-0704-1804-2905-1105-2506-0706-2007-0307-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1809-3010-1310-26新加坡重质油库存（千桶）20182019202020212022202320242025020040060080010001200140016001800200001-0201-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2904-0904-2105-0405-1706-0106-1406-2707-0907-2208-0508-1808-3109-1309-2610-0810-2211-04欧洲ARA燃料油库存20182019202020212022202320242025 价格及价差05 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures亚太区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-31新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-18富查伊拉3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures欧洲区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30西北欧3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30地中海3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures美国地区燃料油现货价格02040608010012001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾3.5%燃料油FOB价格2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012014016018001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾0.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures纸货与衍生品价格050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU主力2021202220232024050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU连二2021202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures燃料油现货价差010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-01新加坡高低硫价差201920202021202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油裂解价差-50-40-30-20-100102001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10新加坡高硫裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025-60-50-40-30-20-1001001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10西北欧3.5%裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025 进出口06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内燃料油进出口数据05000001000000150000020000002500000300000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油，不含生物柴油：出口数量合计：中国（月）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全