随着通货紧缩周期的开始，为利润压缩做好准备

© Oliver WymanFrom 2020 to 2022, we experienced unprecedented macroeconomicconditions: low interest rates, cheap capital, and a work from homeconsumer base that drove up demand. Supply chain managers alsobulked up inventories over this period, as unexpected supply chainfailures would cause unpredictable shortages.In 2023, we now find ourselves within a drastically different dynamic: rapid interest ratetightening, normalized freight costs, and deflationary pressure inChina.Considering these changes, businesses must be aware of three critical factors that mayresult in compressed margins. Firstly, the rising interest rates will likely curb consumerspending. Secondly, input costs could remain elevated even as demand slows down.Lastly, the high inventory levels that were a buffer in a high demand/highlyuncertainworld will turn into a liability as consumer spending shrinks.To navigate this shifting landscape, businesses must invest in multi-scenario planning,not just as a reactive measure but also as a proactive strategy, so as to rethink their overallorganizational performance. At the same time, developing a dynamic supply chain costoptimization program will be key to staying ahead. Time is of the essence; those whoact quickly and decisively are more likely to maintain healthier margins compared tocompetitors that are slower to respond.UNCERTAINTY AND EXCESSIVE SPENDING DEFINEDTHE COVID-19 ECONOMYThe COVID-19 pandemic triggered a coordinated fiscal and monetary response by allgovernments to prevent a lockdown-driven economic collapse. Government expenditurereached levels not seen since the Second World War. Many of the Group of Seven countriessaw an increase in their net debt-to-GDP ratio. Japan’s increased from 151% to 161%,while this ratio for the US and the UK rose from 83% to 96% and 74% to 95%, respectively,according to Statista. Meanwhile, in Australia, state government debt issuance increasedmore than two times from the average levels before COVID-19 to 2023, according to theAustralian Bureau of Statistics. Equally supportive monetary policy enabled this spending,with interest rates dropping to 0% and many central banks committing to depressed ratesfor an extended period. © Oliver WymanStimulus checks, debt relief, and free money inevitably drove perverse incentives formany operators. Supply chain managers, for example, received a blank check to stockpileinventories to avoid stockouts at almost any cost. In retrospect, the catalysts for a gildedapproach to working capital management were clear: capital was cheap, the expenditureon goods was growing rapidly with consumers stuck at home, and previously unimaginablesupply chain failures were driving unpredictable shortages with spiraling prices. All ofa sudden, paying global freight rates seven times higher than the norm of the previous18 months seemed uncomfortable but acceptable, according to our analysis of the Freightosglobal container price index.The war between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated conditions. Greater supplychain disruptions happened, notably in commodities, such as wheat and fertilizer, where,according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the twocountries are the world’s leading exporters. Other countries curtailing exports to securelocal supply also compounded the war and sanction-induced shortages. The situationcaused wheat and fertilizer prices to skyrocket by 65% and 165%, respectively, from April2021 to April 2022. To succeed in this environment, it was essential to maintain maximumcapacity and ensure supply chain redundancy.Exhibit 1: State government gross debt ($M)25.4K96.5K27.2K104.6K28.2K106.2K27.1K104.5K21.8K110.6K25.2K113.9K26.3K119.9K46.6K158K77.5K193.1K102.3K221.1K121.9K131.8K134.4K131.6K132.5K139.1K146.1K204.6K270.6K323.4K2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-22Debt securitiesOther loans and placementsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Government Finance Statistics, Annual 2021-22 financialyear © Oliver Wyman2023 SAW A COMPLETE PARADIGM SHIFTFor many of the world’s leading economies, there was a sharp U-turn in 2023. Most centralbanks started a historically fast interest rate tightening cycle from mid-2022, with the hopeof bringing inflation rates down to the 2% to 3% target range. With inflation still sittingabove these target levels in the US, the UK, and the EU, the world’s major central banks havesignaled more rate rises are coming.This policy shift has challenged and contracted consumer and business demand in much ofthe OECD. Freight and shipping costs have already returned to pre-pandemic levels. Notably,according to Freightos, since April 2022, there has been an 80% reduction in shipping ratesbetween Asia and the west coast of the US. The challenges in China are even more dire andperhaps provide a glimpse of what is to come. The world’s second largest economy is alreadyexporting deflation; according to theOECD, in July 2023, China’s Consumer Price I