气候变化对人类健康的影响

© 2024 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system.DisclaimerThis document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.ContentsForewordExecutive summary1Understanding the link between climate change and human health1.1Climate change and the IPCC scenarios1.2The negative impacts of climate change on human health2Quantifying the impacts of future climate events on public health2.1Methodology for the climate-related health impact matrix2.2Deep dives on health impacts of the six weather-related events3Building climate-resilient health systems3.1Resistance and recovery, the two key pillars forsustainable health systems3.2Why policies and incentives need to change to enableclimate-resilient health systemsConclusionContributorsEndnotes 34569111218353638444546Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health ForewordClimate change is having a profound impacton global health – whether it’s connected tothe dwindling supply of freshwater because ofdroughts, the increase in infectious disease inthe aftermath of flooding or the toxic air pollutionaccompanying raging wildfires. There is no doubtthat global warming and extreme weather eventsare exacerbating health issues worldwide andputting strain on healthcare systems alreadystretched to the limit in some regions.Over the next decade, as detailed in the Forum’sGlobal Risks Report 2023, the failure to mitigateand adapt to climate change will represent ourgravest risk globally, with changing climate andweather patterns already leading to alarmingtrends.1These include escalating new and existingpathogens, increases in air- and waterbornepollution and worsening extreme weather eventssuch as heat waves, tropical storms and floods.Additionally, the health inequity gap has also begunto widen due to the effects of climate change onShyam BishenHead, Centre for Healthand Healthcare; Member ofthe Executive Committee,World Economic Forum vulnerable populations and geographies alreadyfacing hardship and limited access to high-quality,As part of a collaboration between the WorldEconomic Forum and Oliver Wyman, an economicanalysis focussing on how climate will likelytransform the health landscape over the nexttwo decades was carried out. Our in-depthanalysis – part of the Forum’s Climate and Healthinitiative – also gauged climate’s impact on theglobal economy and healthcare systems around theworld and offered actionable strategies to mitigateand prepare for the anticipated threat.Our goal with the report and initiative is to help thepublic and private sectors create more resilientand healthier communities. By raising awarenessof the size and scope of the impending climate-driven health crisis, we hope to provide guidance tovarious regions and communities about how to usethe limited time we have left to prepare.Sam GlickGlobal Leader of Healthand Life Sciences,Oliver WymanQuantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health affordable healthcare. 3 Executive summaryWhile there has been much discussion about theimpact of climate change on nature and the globaleconomy, some of the most pressing consequencesof the earth’s rising temperatures will be on humanhealth and the global healthcare system. This paperaims to quantify the health consequences of climatechange, both in terms of the health outcomesthemselves (mortality and healthy lives lost) andin terms of the economic costs to the healthcaresystem. Six major climate-driven event categorieswere analysed as important drivers of negative healthimpacts, including floods, droughts, heat waves,tropical storms, wildfires and rising sea levels.The findings of the analysis showed that by 2050,climate change is likely to cause an additional14.5 million deathsand$12.5 trillion in economiclossesworldwide. Climate-induced impacts willaccount for a further $1.1 trillion in extra costs tohealthcare systems, creating a significant additionalburden on already strained infrastructures andmedical and human resources.Of the weather events analysed, floods were foundto pose the highest acute risk of climate-inducedmortality, accounting for 8.5 million deaths by2050. Droughts, indirectly linked to extreme heat,are the second-highest cause of mortality, withan anticipated 3.2 million deaths. Heat waves,which constitute a prolonged period of extremetemperatures and humidity, take the highesteconomic toll at an estimated $7.1 trillion by 2050due to the loss in productivity.Climate change will trigger a catastrophicrise acros