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© Oliver WymanThe future is looking bright for European wholesale banks for the firsttimein 15 years. A positive interest rate environment is creating new opportunitiesfor European firms to increase earnings and deliver sustainable returns. Atthe same time, divergence in new capital rules, if implemented as proposed,would raise capital requirements for US banks and could createadvantagefor Europeans.After a decade of intensive restructuring, European wholesale banks arepoised to seize these opportunities. They are leaner, more focused,andhigher returning than a decade ago. With disciplined participationchoices,as well as cost and balance sheet control, they now have the platform theyneed to create durable returns well above the cost ofcapital.THE NEW MONETARY ORDER IS DRIVING CHANGEEuropean wholesale banking revenue pools have grown by 20% since 2019, reaching$195 billion in 2023. We expect these gains, with a structurally larger and more profitablepool, to be sustained. Growth has come from volatility-driven trading and interest incomethat benefited from rising rates. European policy rates have increased by 450 basis points inthe past two years, after a decade below zero. Deposit betas — or how much of the changein market interest rates banks have to pass onto their customers — have been lower in theEurozone than in the United States, allowing transaction banking and securities servicesbusinesses to add $16 billion in revenue.Investment banking and equities revenue has been weaker, but European banks havebenefited from a greater presence in these growth businesses. As the cycle hasturnedmany have realized the benefits of a diversified and stable universal bankingmodel. © Oliver WymanExhibit 1: European wholesale banking has grown 20% since before the pandemic and isexpected to protect those gains in a soft-landing scenarioEMEA revenue pool outlook, US$billionLendingSecurities servicesTransaction bankingIBDEquitiesSpreadMacroProjectedBase case “soft landing”+20%421918172691623120192020202120222023E2024F2025F411921153911175294320252330121853243211522481019738422213204211195454221172040111954242211921401219440Bear-bull scenario rangeBear case: “Hard landing”Bull case: “No landing”Note: Forecasts do not include credit losses.Source: Coalition-Greenwich, Oliver Wyman analysisAssuming an economic soft landing and gradual tapering of monetary policy from 2024,the outlook for revenues over 2024–25 is stable, sustaining a revenue pool 20% larger thanthe pre-COVID-19 era (notwithstanding obvious macroeconomic and geopoliticalrisks).THE BASEL 3 ENDGAME COULD SPUR VALUE SHIFTSNew capital rules known as the Basel 3 endgame could structurally change the competitivelandscape and returns of global wholesale banking. This creates both opportunity andchallenge for European banks. Current US proposals, if implemented, would result in a 35%increase in risk-weighted assets (RWA) for US banks globally and international banks’ USsubsidiaries, compared with just 15% for European banks under Europeanproposals.The proposed US rules are more punitive than European proposals in how market, credit,and operational risk capital are calculated, compounded by potential double counting acrosscapital requirements. The RWA effect would vary substantially by business, with the greatestuplift in macro and spread businesses and significant hotspots at more granular levels, such © Oliver Wymanas holding inventory in any single-name exposures, financing unlisted corporates, structuringlong-dated or complex derivatives, and financing the climate transition. (For a deeperanalysis of the proposed rules and their potential impact, see our Outlook for WholesaleBanking report 2023.)We expect some changes to the final rules, but even so, the proposals could lead to a 2–3percentage point drag on returns for US wholesale banks, compared with 0–1 percentagepoints for European banks. These changes could largely close the return gap betweenUSand European banks, relevelling the playing field for Europeans.Europeans will still need to adapt their business model in light of Basel 3 —includingpricing for increased capital and reviewing businesses that deliver marginal returns —but the headwinds should be largely manageable. Many European banks are alreadyadapting their business to anticipate Basel 3 endgame impacts, including in capitalallocationdecisions.Exhibit 2:Basel 3 endgame could drive significant increase in capital for USbanksEstimated RWA Uplift under B3E proposals versus current bindingconstraint+35%+15%Expected B3E impact on ROE¹2022 ROEEstimated RWA uplift from B3ECurrent RWA (binding constraint)USEurope-2 to -3 pp+0 to 1 pp14.3%11.7%1. Assumes bank adaptation and rules implemented as proposed.Source: US banking regulators, Bank for International Settlements; European Banking Authority, Bank disclosures,Coalition-Greenwich, Oliver Wyman analysis © Oliver WymanUS banks won’t stand still, of course. We expect to see repricing, technical adaptation,