2024年全球保险业投资展望

3Introduction4Key findings6Section 1: Opportunities and challenges for insurers in 202412Section 2: Advancing into private markets16Section 3:Operational challenges20Section 4: Evolution of sustainable investment approaches26Contact us We ended 2023 in a very different placethan where we started as economiescontinued to defy recession expectations.Over the course of the year, the S&P 500rose from 3,800 to 4,800 even as ratescontinued to tighten. The US 10-year yieldwent from 3.5% to 4%, reflecting a broadercoalescence around higher long-term policyrates and persistently high interest ratevolatility. The geopolitical environmentgrew increasingly complex through thelatter part of the year and remains in thatstate, with markets looking ahead to abumper year of elections.Introduction The market experience of the past year has reinforcedthe need for insurers to build robust, agile portfolios thatsupport the primary business while also positioning firmsto respond to and capitalize on evolving market risksand opportunities.The overarching takeaway from our survey this year is thedegree to which current and potential market volatilityis impacting the investment outlook for insurers acrosssegments andbusiness lines.Furthermore, the uncertain inflation, interest rate andgrowth outlook remain front of mind for insurers,prompting many to reevaluate their investment frameworksand seek ways to put excess cashto work.Amit PopatGlobal Head of Financial Institutions, MercerJoshua ZwickHead of Asset Management, Oliver Wyman Key findingsRegarding the outlook for 2024, insurers are mindful of marketvolatility and are ready to put excess cash and liquidity towork, whether through optimizing all fixed income allocations,increasing exposure to private debt or continuing the push intoprivate markets more broadly. Section 1:With market volatility at the forefrontof insurers’ concerns regardingthe year ahead, many insurers arereevaluating their fixed incomestrategies:•Market volatility is the primary investmentchallenge for insurers, cited by 61% offirms, and is a persistent concern acrossinsurer typesand regions.•Sixty percent of insurers cite optimizingthe core fixed income portfolio asa top investment opportunity fortheyear ahead.•Across portfolios more broadly, 51%view continued diversification awayfrom traditional asset classes as apriority in 2024, whereas 40% citecashmanagement.Opportunities and challengesfor insurers in 2024 Section 2:Almost three-quarters (73%) ofinsurers currently invest in privatemarkets or plan to do so in 2024:•Nearly four in 10 insurers (39%) intendto increase their private marketsallocationsthis year.•An inability to tolerate increasedilliquidity, a lack of resources to assessinvestment opportunities and thecomplexity of investment instrumentsare the primary reasons given for notinvesting inprivate markets.•Among those already invested, costand complexity (of both investmentinstruments and manager selection)are the most prevalent headwinds toincreasingallocations.Advancing into privatemarkets Section 4:Integration of sustainability factors ison the increase, but net-zero target-setting remains more limited:•Among insurers already incorporatingsustainability considerations intoinvestment decisions, 70% plan toincrease exposure to sustainableinvestments in the next 12 months,although concerns surrounding datastandardization andtransparency endure.•Stakeholder preferences and regulatory/political expectations are the most citedreasons for incorporating sustainabilityconsiderations into investment decision-making. The most cited reason fornot integrating these factors is thatsustainability is not a priority at theboard/investment-committee level.•Thirty-seven percent of insurers(48% of life insurers and 29% ofnon-life insurers) have set net-zerotargets across their investment portfolios,with US- and Asia-based organizationslaggingEuropean peers.Evolution of sustainableinvestment approaches Section 3:Regulation is the primary operationalchallenge for insurers this year:•Sixty-one percent regard evolvingregulatory requirements and adapting toregulatory changes as the key operationalchallengefor 2024.•Other prominent operational challengesfor insurers include the timeliness (45%)and ongoing management of asset-leveldata (39%). Regulation and expectedregulatory change continue to focusinsurers on reporting and clean dataregarding assets, accounting,and ESG.Operational challenges 1Opportunities and challenges for insurers in 2024Insurers are reevaluating their fixedincome strategies as interest rate volatilityremains high from a historical perspective.Optimizing the core fixed income portfoliois the most cited opportunity over thecoming year, whereas market volatility isthe most cited concern.OpportunitiesTop investment opportunities over the next 12 monthsPercentage oforganizations(2022)LifeNon-lifeUSOptimizing the core (fixed income)portfolio60%47%67%71%Diversifying portfolios awayfrom traditional as