日本银行业需要抓住的3个关键机遇

Why read this paper?The Japanese banking industry is among the largest in the world, but equity investors donot value Japanese megabanks like global leaders in the industry. The valuation gap toglobal peers is 70% today. We believe this valuation gap will remain stubbornly wide unlessthe megabanks take action to address investor concerns.The old news is that the organizational and operational complexity of the domestic megabankmodel is a major concern for investors — this will take time to address and may never be fullyresolved. What is new in our study is that investors see more immediate opportunities for themegabanks to close the valuation gap. Japanese banks have a generational opportunity tobuild a wealth management franchise that generates returns now common in other markets,delivering ~150% in price-to-book improvement. Investors also see significant untappedvalue in a pan-Asian banking platform that can capture local growth opportunities andextract synergies from regional operations, potentially delivering ~115% in price-to-bookimprovement. Each opportunity presents a path to break through the critical 1x price-to-bookthreshold the Tokyo Stock Exchange demands.This is a critical moment for Japanese banks. All eyes are turning toward Japan and Japanesebanks will need to move quickly to capture the opportunity that everyone sees. CONTENTSExecutive SummaryA Moment of OpportunityA Moment of ChallengeSeizing the MomentStrategy 1: Address organizational and operational inefficienciesStrategy 2: Develop client-oriented wealth businessStrategy 3: Establish a pan-Asian banking powerhouse 6814141520 © Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY1Yuasa, K. (2023, January 26). Tokyo Stock Exchange plans ultimatum: Shape up by 2026 or delist. Nikkei Asia.2MostrecentpublishedfinancialsusedforJapanesebanks( JFY2023).3CalculatedusingthemegabankaverageforJFY2023(April2022- March 2023) and estimated maximum improvementsbased on Oliver Wyman analysis.Japanese megabanks are enjoying a rare moment in the sun.Economic tailwinds haveboosted returns and replenished capital buffers, giving these institutions more room tomaneuver and the opportunity to pursue substantive strategic moves.However, investor skepticism of the “megabank miracle” remains.Despite a strong rallyover the past 18 months, shares still trade at a significant discount to North American peersand do not meet targets set by the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) for all listed companies tomaintain >1x price to book ratio (P/B).1,2Global investors will need to see more evidence of structural change to re-rate shareprices. Japanese megabanks can learn from the experience of their peers in NorthAmericaand Europe, which have optimized their capital, and structured business models and clearinvestor narratives around activities that command higher valuation multiples. The specificpath(s) the megabanks follow will be different, but the playbook should be the same.Japanese megabanks will be expected to take action in the following three areas.Reduce complexity and inefficiencies in the operating model:Japanesemegabanks have fragmented governance and sprawling legal entity structures thatglobal investors struggle to analyze. For years, the megabanks have been exploringpotential governance and structural simplification. To some extent, these structuresare features of Japan’s legal, regulatory, and business environment. However,the current economic tailwinds provide an opportunity to convince investors thatthe megabanks can overcome this complexity to deliver stronger returns over anextended time horizon. Investors will focus on outcomes (e.g., profitability andreturns), but a clear narrative on how the operating model is evolving to reducecomplexity, control risks, and improve efficiency will show theway.Build credible strategies in activities that investors reward:Investors tend toreward stable, profitable businesses supported by sustained economic tailwinds(e.g., wealth management, transaction banking). The domestic wealth and assetmanagement opportunity in Japan fits the profile, but the business model will needto evolve to capture its full potential. The recent transformation of the US wealthmanagement industry offers a playbook for Japanese megabanks that we believe candeliver ~150%3price-to-book improvement. Leverage domestic scale on the global stage:Japanese megabanks are betterpositioned to take share and generate attractive returns outside Japan, driven in partby the strength of their domestic franchises (e.g., sticky customer deposits, flexiblecapital position). However, building a successful economic model will demand morefocused strategies with greater integration of international operating models andinfrastructure. We believe that successful execution can potentially deliver ~115%4in price-to-book improvements. Replicating the complexity of the domestic bankingmodel in Japan will erode the fleeting advantage that megabanks haveabroad.Failure to capitalize on this moment m