应对全球金融体系碎片化

ContentsForewordExecutive summaryIntroduction1Past, present and future of the global financial system1.1The US dollar’s centrality1.2Integration of a global system1.3Use of the financial system for economic statecraft1.4Multipolarity and pressures for fragmentation2What are the costs of a fragmented financial system?2.1Macroeconomic impact2.2Impact on EMDEs2.3Impact on financial institutions3Guardrails to protect the global financial system3.1Principles to Safeguard the Global FinancialSystem from Fragmentation3.2Rules of Engagement for Responsible Economic Statecraft3.3A positive vision for the financial system4Policy recommendations: A framework for action4.1Contend with existing financial fragmentation4.2Resist further system fragmentation4.3Reform the global financial system4.4Concluding thoughtsAppendix: Key terminologyContributorsEndnotesDisclaimerThis document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. 34891011121416162022252528313233353637383942©2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system.Navigating Global Financial System Fragmentation The global financial system is among the mostinterconnected and interdependent ecosystems inthe world. Global cross-border bank credit stands atnearly $40 trillion, roughly the size of the GDP of theUnited States, Germany, Japan and India combined.Bond issuances by governments and corporatestotalled $9 trillion in 2024, with investors allocatingan additional $600 billion to global bond funds. Thetotal value of cross-border payments in 2023 wasestimated at more than $190 trillion.For decades, this system has served as theengine for global economic growth through itsfinancing of the real economy. It is composed of aninterconnected network of actors, both domesticand international, including central and commercialbanks, investment firms and insurers, andregulators, all of which work together to allocateresources, manage risks and provide necessaryliquidity. Its functioning promotes growth, stabilityand integration by moving the funds requiredfor development and commerce, supportingindividuals, corporates and governments.Like any social system, it has developed around acommon set of rules, principles and norms, bothexplicit and implicit, that functionally underpin thesystem’s architecture and establish trust between itsactors, allowing firms to conduct business acrossborders. These elements include respect for propertyownership rights, the fundamental rule of law and theindependence of fiscal and monetary policy. Theyhave allowed the system to contend with disruptions,both chronic concerns and shocks, the most famousbeing the global financial crisis. Financial institutionsacted together to save the system – such as whenForewordMatthew BlakeHead, Centre for Financial andMonetary Systems; Memberof the Executive Committee,World Economic Forum the US Federal Reserve used swap lines to provideemergency dollar liquidity to 14 central banks – bothout of societal obligation and self-preservation.This understanding, however, is increasingly atrisk in a complex geopolitical environment definedby excessive fragmentation, multipolarity and thegrowing use of geoeconomic statecraft. Moreand more, states seek to use the global financialsystem to advance geopolitical objectives. Thisposes a threat to the very integrity of the systemand will have costs at a macroeconomic levelas well as for financial institutions, ranging fromasset stranding and valuation volatility to reducedliquidity and credit-rating risks.The Navigating Global Financial SystemFragmentation initiative convenes more than 25chief executives, chairpersons and other globalfinance leaders to reinforce the integrity of thefinancial system at this moment of rising geopoliticalcomplexity. This report aims to clearly articulate andcodify those core rules, principles and norms thatcan preserve the system while also making the casefor the immense opportunity provided by enhancedcoordination and integration.The report represents a call to action from theprivate sector to protect the global financialsystem’s most essential elements, withoutundermining national security or sovereignty. Byconsidering these frameworks, policy-makers canestablish the necessary conditions for efficientcapital markets and enable continued economicgrowth for decades to come.Ted MoynihanManaging Partner, GlobalHead of Industries, OliverWyman (Marsh McLennan)Navigating Global Financial System Fragmentation 3 Executive summaryAn