应对经济制裁和地缘政治风险的5种方法

ConfidentialityOur clients’ industries are extremely competitive, and the maintenance of confidentiality withrespect to our clients’ plans and data is critical. Oliver Wyman rigorously applies internalconfidentiality practices to protect the confidentiality of all client information.Similarly, our industry is very competitive. We view our approaches and insights as proprietaryand therefore look to our clients to protect our interests in our proposals, presentations,methodologies, and analytical techniques. Under no circumstances should this material be sharedwith any third party without the prior written consent of Oliver Wyman.© Oliver Wyman © Oliver WymanContentsExecutive Summary...................................................................................................................... i1.Managing a complex geopolitical and sanctions landscape .......................................... 12.Practical takeaways for Boards and senior leadership .................................................. 4 © Oliver WymanExecutive SummaryGeopolitical rivalries have reshaped the global landscape since the mid-2010s. Nucleardevelopments associated with the Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) causedeconomic fragmentation through the US’ imposition of secondary sanctions, which along with theannexation of Crimea by Russia have marked a turning point in history. More recently, theRussianfull-scale invasion of Ukraine, tensions between US and China, and fighting in the Gaza regionhave given rise to greater geopolitical risk, impacting firms through supply chain pressures, marketentry challenges, and increased regulatory compliance burdens.Trade sanctions have become a prominent tool for countries to exert economic pressure andinfluence amid geopolitical tensions. In response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine,comprehensive and broad sanctions have been implemented by the US, UK, and EU, targetingRussian entities and sectors funding the conflict. The increasing breadth and severity of sanctionson Russia, reflect the international community's determination to deter further aggression in theregion but in doing so require enhanced regulatory compliance and risk management efforts.Amid evolving geopolitical events, and an increasingly complex sanctions landscape, Boards andsenior management teams must make strategic decisions to navigate potential geopolitical risks,such as adjusting supply chain strategies, divesting high-risk businesses, and enhancing regulatorycompliance and risk management frameworks, to effectively manage uncertainties and changes inthe sanctions landscape. Steps for consideration include:1.Define ownership for management of geopolitical risk within the firm2.Thoroughly understand and assess the impact of geopolitical risks through regularassessments3.Manage geopolitical risks proactively, taking immediate action when needed4.Develop long-term playbooks for managing geopolitical risks5.Monitor and reassess geopolitical risks continually i © Oliver Wyman1.Managing a complex geopoliticaland sanctions landscapeSince the mid-2010s, “geopolitical rivalries have stormed back to centre stage,”1reshaping theglobal landscape extensively.Nuclear developments resulting in the JCPOA and causing economicfragmentation through the US’ imposition of secondary sanctions, as well as the annexation ofCrimea by Russia, marked a new phase in geopolitics. And more recent geopolitical events havecontinued this trend, further escalating geopolitical uncertainty and giving rise to new risks.Figure 1: Timeline of major geopolitical events (non-exhaustive)1From ‘The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of Revisionist Powers,’Foreign Affairs,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2014-04-17/return-geopolitics,published 17 April 2014, last accessed 29 July 2024. 1 © Oliver Wyman2The increase in geopolitical risks and events has had substantial impact for firms, and inparticular in regards to supply chains, market entry challenges and risks, and an increasedregulatory compliance burden.Recent geopolitical events have especially exposed theinterconnectedness of raw materials through shipping and distribution, and highlighted thegeopolitical risks associated with control and access to strategic resources. Geopolitical risks haveat times presented challenges for some firms seeking to enter new markets. Additionally, theRussian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in particular, has resulted in a substantial rise in traderegulations and sanctions requirements from different regulators and supervisors, which firmshave had to carefully consider and respond to in order to comply with obligations.As geopolitical tensions and conflicts continue to shape global dynamics, countries are resortingto trade sanctions as a tool to exert economic pressure and influence.In response to Russia’sfull-scale invasion of Ukraine, new sanctions prohibitions have been implemented by the US, theUK and the UN. These new sanctio