中央银行成功的首要改变游戏规则的原则

© Oliver WymanGlobal economic conditions are shifting rapidly — driven by new businessmodels, technological advancements, and changing workforce demands —placing central banks and financial sector authorities at a critical juncture.They are increasingly pressured to address this new context whilebeingmoreeffective and efficient, adaptable to new mandates and resilient tonewdemands.But delivering new and expanded mandates with flat budgets & headcountin today’s world requires proactive, internal change — and a significantmindset shift. The internal transformation needed is significant and requiresnew capabilities, behaviors, and structures, which is inherently difficult inlightof these organizations unique operational and cultural norms (that alsobuildsmany of their strengths). They need to be better in anticipating needs,planning, prioritizing, budgeting, allocating resources, leading the workforce,or digitizing the operating model — not alongside, but to better deliver ontheir mandates. Achieving this balance will need to become a newnormal.A survey conducted byOliver Wyman with key global stakeholders from theseinstitutions shows they are willing to change but recognize their bespokechallenges in internal transformation. It suggests significant work is neededby most in 5 key areas:Equip leadership with diverse skills in influence,communication, and accountabilityFocus on P eople and H R transformationwith tailored workforce planningProfessionalize internal operations toeffectively support front-line functionsInvest in technology, particularly A I , as a keyenabler for operations and innovationMature organizational steeringcapabilities for better decision-making © Oliver WymanFACING THE FUTURE: CENTRAL BANKS AREAT A CRITICAL JUNCTURECentral Banks and financial sector authorities1have been recognized as pillars of globalmonetary and financial stability for centuries. They typically emerged to solve specificeconomic challenges — such as financing wars or stabilizing currencies — and operatedindependently from government. Over time, their mandates, sizes, and budgets haveexpanded significantly, often in reaction to significant economic events or bankingcrises, with policy and regulation the primary drivers of their organizational andoperationaltransformations.Exhibit 1: Evolution of selected central banks’ budgets (based on annual reports)Annual operating costs across central banks (indexed),2012-2023300250200150100502016201520142019BoE1ECBFedRSMASSARBDBBFedRBNYBoC1. Total combined expenditure.DBB: Deutsche Bundesbank; BoC: Bank of Canada; BoE: Bank of England; BIS: Bank for International Settlements; ECB:European Central Bank; FedRS: Federal Reserve System (Board of Governors); Fed NY: Federal Reserve Bank of New York;MAS: Monetary Authority of Singapore; NB: Norges Bank; SARB: South African Reserve Bank; SR: Sveriges Riksbank.Source: Annual Reports, Oliver Wyman Strategy and Change Survey on Central Banks and Financial Sector Authorities1Wereferhereto“financialsectorauthorities”looselytocoverregulators,supervisorsorotherorganizationswithmandates for (prudential/conduct/AML/CFT/markets/securities/etc.) supervision, payments systems oversight,Financial Stability and macro-prudential, resolution, and other, irrespective of a given jurisdiction’s oversight model(e.g. sectoral, twin peaks, etc). 202020182017SRNB © Oliver WymanToday, these institutions have reached a critical juncture. The external environment is shiftingrapidly, challenging the conventional ways of delivering on the traditional mandates of centralbanking or supervision. New business models, significant technological advancements, andthe fragmentation of both old and new players are reshaping the financial sector, all whileadapting to a new inflation paradigm, geopolitical circumstances, and changing workforcedemands. Additionally, macroeconomic challenges — such as rising living costs, inflation,and global supply chain shifts — are pressuring governments to demand more from theirauthorities, including political influence, budget discipline, support for competitiveness,and attention to social concerns such as inequality, inclusion, and climate. These trends willinevitably alter how mandates are delivered, making financial stability shocks, monetarypolicy transmission, and supervisory outcomes increasinglyunpredictable.The solution, however, won’t come from further expanding budgets or increasing headcount.Instead, central banks and other financial sector authorities must change the way theyoperate internally, and do so proactively. They need to anticipate market trends, adapt torelevant changes, diversify their talent, and prioritise, plan, and budget for the future. Dueto budget and headcount restraints, there needs to be a clear view on acceptable trade-offsand risk tolerance to guide leadership in its decision-making. Rising public expectations willalso necessitate improved communication about these decisions and robust frameworks forassess