电信公司如何解锁更高的估值和增长

AUTHORSIvan PalenciaMaarten De WitMatias FagianoPilar de ArribaLaurent BensoussanEmmanuel AmiotLindy KouyoumjiPablo HabererRafael AsensioFelix Iblher Dear readerMany perspectives on the telco industry focus on the disconnect between volumeand value growth, the inability to profit from the spectacular value created by digitalecosystems that use telco networks, and overall, of the lackluster future of the sector.These perspectives often overlook the growing realization of the innate strategicvalue of systemically critical, high-capacity telecommunications networks in any givencountry, and the real progress some players have made to create sustainable growth.Drivers for a rerating of telecom operators and the industry at large are presentalready. It is now a question on how well these can be expressed, depending onlocal market characteristics, regulation, and the ability to change of the leaders ofthe industry.What are the main drivers for rerating of telcos? How can a better understandinglead to rational competition and a better comprehension of regulators? How cantelcos create strategies that permit sustainable growth, and sustain multi-decadefranchises with attractive financialcharacteristics?These are the questions we address in our perspective on “The Ideal Telco”. It isshaped by our strategy work with the leading operators across the globe. We hopeyou find it an interestingread.Sincerely yoursLaurent BensoussanGlobal Industry HeadCommunications, Media and TechnologyINTRODUCTION CONTENTSTelco Performance Over TimeThe Challenges of Telco ValuationThe Opportunity for Rerating UpwardsThe Equation for The Ideal TelcoConclusion 8121626 © Oliver WymanTELCO PERFORMANCEOVER TIME © Oliver WymanTelecommunication services underpin the workings of modern commerce, with telecomcompanies (telcos) providing a key component of digital competitiveness and serving asa cornerstone of national security and the economy. Given the need of businesses andconsumers for transmission capacity and telecom services, one would expect the telecomindustry to be generating outsized returns.But despite the near-limitless appetite for bandwidth over the past decades, the telecomsector has seen little of that demand translate into higher valuations. Instead, over thepast decade, revenue and profit growth have become decoupled from underlying growth,resulting paradoxically in telecom valuations being depressed in the face of soaring demandfor its services (see Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1: Telco performance has lagged the returns of the broader market and IT sectorStock market performanceSelected indexes, USA, 2011-2023+220%+680%098765432120222021202320132012S&P 50020112016201520142019202020182017S&P TelecomS&P ITSource: SNL, Oliver Wyman © Oliver WymanThis underperformance stems from multiple causes. One factor is high investment intensity,with telecoms continuing to plow investment into fixed assets. But the more persistentsource for their poor returns has been the inability to exercise pricing power. This is theoutcome of market structure: too many players with too much infrastructure are pushingprices down — in some cases below the cost of capital — and depressing operators’ returnon capital expenditure to a point where future investment becomes uncertain (see Exhibit 2).Exhibit 2: Return on capital has dipped sharply among some telecom operatorsReturn on CapitalSelected Telecom operatorsAmericasAPAC20237%201515%201920136%13%Europe202320155%22%-77%IMEA202320159%11%-18%-54%-53%Source: Capital IQ, Oliver WymanTelcos have it within their power to change this equation. By improving “top line permission”— actions telecoms can take to expand longer-term market structure improvements — andenhancing cash conversion efficiency, telcos can rerate upwards. Reratings won’t happenovernight and some operators will outshine others, but the potential is there for an “idealtelco”. Moreover, the components and pathway to that ideal are within reach. © Oliver WymanTHE CHALLENGES OFTELCO VALUATION © Oliver WymanHistorically, telcos and their networks have been regarded by nations as strategic assets,essential for economic development and national security. During the 2000s, the industry’sfuture looked bright: There was the advent of new network technologies that would powerthe Third Industrial Revolution and good prospects of greater penetration, additionalservices, and increased revenues. Meanwhile, the high capital expenditures (capex) requiredto build these new networks were seen as barriers to entry, creating economic moatsfor companies.Telcos, however, failed to maintain positive momentum. So while the 2010s saw demand fordata explode, telcos have not profited from the revolution. On the contrary, competitionintensified, with new players entering the market (in retail and infrastructure) and erodingpricing power, while continued high capex requirements ate into the bottom line. As aconsequence, telco revenue growth trailed GDP growth across the globe,