开启商品交易增长新时代

© Oliver WymanAfter a period of extraordinary growth borne of intense volatility fromgeopolitical uncertainty, the commodity trading industry is establishing amore stable baseline with its performance in 2024.Oliver Wyman’s analysisindicates that trading’s gross margin last year fell more than 20% from theyear before, as market conditions continued tonormalize.The now more settled levels of gross margin observed in 2024 are still doublewhere the industry stabilized in the 2010’s, following the global financial crisisof 2008, illustrating commodity traders’ continuing importance andinfluence.At the same time, the industry has become increasingly competitive, with thetop 10 traders losing 10 percentage points in market share and the cost andeffort required to capture value in commodities markets being drivenhigher.To succeed, traders must now perform a tense balancing act as they attemptto grow against this backdrop. They must weigh the need for growth in a morecompetitive market against their need for efficiency of returns, especiallygiven the marginal complexity that growth creates, having to trade offcommercial agility against increasing systematization. Prioritizing portfolioresilience and operating model robustness will set traders up for success inthe comingyears. © Oliver WymanMARKETSTABILIZATIONGiven how stellarthe previous two yearshad been, it is no surprise that overall commoditytrading’s gross margin fell in 2024 to a three-year low around $95 billion, which wassimultaneously the third-best year ever (see Exhibit1). Less volatility was the primary driverof lower results, as energy markets settled into relative stability. Key commodity flows havenow reconfigured around the supply chain constraints and disruptions that emerged in 2022.Many major commodity markets, particularly energy, were less constrained, driving prices andvolatility down. In oil, for instance, production outpaced lower-than-expected demand growth,keeping prices lower and more stable despite cuts by the Organization of the PetroleumExporting Countries and others. A milder-than-average winter in most parts of the northernhemisphere also prevented spikes in natural gas prices across multipleregions.The results in 2024 represent a continuation of a long-run positive trend for commoditytraders, with gross margins more than doubling since 2019. Globalization, the energytransition, and geopolitical shifts will continue to create optionality, volatility and risks thatdrive margins for traders. 2024 can be seen as a more normal year and will be a baseline forfuture growth, absent extraordinary market circumstances ordisruptions.Exhibit 1:Global commodity trading gross margin by commoditytypeInUS$billions2011-2019range2020202120222023020406080100120140160+2.5x1. Oil includes oil products and investor products; 2. Integrated Power & Gas consists of LNG, European Power & Gas,North American Power & Gas, Asian Power & Gas, and emissions; 3. Metals & Mining consists of coal, copper, lead, nickel,aluminium, tin, zinc, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, cobalt, iron ore, andcopperSource:Oliver Wymanproprietary data andanalysis Commodity typeScale of decrease vs. 2023:+60%+150%+170%+80%Change2023–2024Change2019–20242024estimateAgricultural andfood products<10%10–20%>20%Metals and mining(including coal)3Integrated gas,power, and emissions2Oil1~95 © Oliver WymanAt the same time, this margin decline has exposed much of the complexity and cost thattrading organizationshad to take onon while trying to maximize returns and manage recordvolatility through 2022 and 2023. Talent costs have risen sharply, spurred by the hiringenthusiasm of the past couple of years. Firms hired more traders and put larger and moreexpensive teams around them, driving up labor costs in a competitivemarket.Since 2019, costs per trader — excluding bonuses — have increased more than 25%. Whencombined with the growth in the number of traders, operating expenses have increased 45%in absolute terms. Much of this cost increase is driven by competition for top talent acrossrisk, finance, data, and analytics. These experts have been particularly sought after to helpmanage large market and cash liquidity risks and bolster digitalization initiatives. Increasedcosts have started to put pressure on trading management to improve cost-income ratiosand pursue new avenues for growth — one of multiple factors increasing competition fortradingvalue.As a result, traders now face pressure to re-evaluate operating models to prioritize efficiencyand systematize businesses that may have grownrapidly.Margin decline has exposed the complexity and cost that tradershad to take on while trying to maximize returns and manage recordvolatility through 2022 and2023.INTENSIFYINGCOMPETITIONThe balance between market participants, including merchant traders, commoditymarketers, and everyone in between, has evolved over the past five years. The dominanceof the top 10 traditional traders is weakening, with a 10