MRO需求挑战

© Oliver WymanINTRODUCTIONAs it does every year, the Oliver Wyman MRO Survey asks executives from across the aviationindustry what they think about key trends, challenges, and emerging changes in the maintenance,repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector. In this year’s survey, we examine ongoing supply chainand labor challenges and the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the MROindustry.In all, 172 aviation professionals participated in the survey, providing expertise drawn fromairline and independent MROs, airline operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs),and others. The survey is international in scope; nearly 70% of respondents have a primarybase of operations outside of North America. Just over half are senior executives (C-suite,vice presidents, and above) and 82% are director level or above. As a backdrop, we haveleveraged the Oliver Wyman 2025–2035 Global Fleet and MRO Forecast to provide additionalcolor and data to augment ourfindings.The MRO industry has fully recovered from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. PerOliver Wyman’s latest forecast for MRO spend, the market reached over $114 billion in 2024,an increase of 7.2% above the 2019 pre-COVID peak in real dollars (Exhibit 1). This year, MROspending is forecast to be $120 billion. The increase in spend is attributed to newer aircraftexperiencing unforeseen durability and reliability issues, inflation in labor and material costs,and an MRO “super cycle” — a combination of increased aircraft utilization and an aging fleetthat needs higher maintenance to stay operational. Over the next 10 years, we expect theMRO industry to grow by an annual rate of 2.7% through 2035, reaching $156billion.Exhibit 1: Global MRO spending forecast 2025-2035US$ billions, CAGR1202025+2.1%Note: CAGR stands for compound annual growth rateSource: Oliver Wyman Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035 13315620302035+3.3% © Oliver WymanBUSINESS CLIMATEBy all accounts, business is good for MRO’s: 68% of survey respondents said they believethe industry’s financial performance improved over the past year, and 72% expect that itwill continue to improve over the next two years. This strong financial performance is notgoing unnoticed, as the MRO sector continues to attract investment attention. Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents expect outside investment and deal activity to increase overthe next two years.When asked which MRO segments they expect to attract the most investment and dealactivity in the next 1-2 years, respondents overwhelmingly voted for engines. Componentsslightly edged out heavy airframes for second place, with line maintenance a distant fourth.Engines are receiving significant investor attention for two reasons: One is that supplychain pain points are particularly pronounced in this segment. The other is that the enginesegment has better margins than more labor-intensive segments, due to higher materialscontent. Activity for engine-related transactions was high in 2024, including Standard Aero,Lockheed Martin Commercial Engine Solutions, BP Aero, Barnes, AeroTurbine, Farsound,and Component RepairTechnologies.Respondents also told us that components are ripe for consolidation (followed in order byengines, airframe, and line maintenance). Despite consolidation to date in the componentaftermarket, it is still highly fragmented, with competitors ranging in size from “end of therunway” operations, focused on specific component categories and select customers, tohighly diversified competitors able to offer comprehensivesolutions.TOP DISRUPTORSEach year, we ask survey respondents to share what they think will be the top disruptorsin the MRO industry over the next five years (Exhibit2). We introduced a new category thisyear, material shortages, and it came in as the top disruptor, with more than two-thirds ofrespondents selecting it. For the fourth year in a row, cost management and labor shortageswere also cited as top disruptors by two-thirds of respondents. All major industry groups —operators, OEMs, and MROs — are aligned on these top disruptors.Just under half of respondents cited changes to fleet plans/strategies as a top four disruptor.Such changes have significant implications for operational efficiency, supply chain dynamics,and financial performance. According toOliver Wyman’s fleet forecast, there is a notabletrend of “upgauging” in domestic markets, with carriers opting to replace smaller jets withlarger, more cost-efficient narrowbody aircraft. In some international markets, however,carriers are doing just the opposite, replacing widebodies and opening new routes witha new generation of long-range narrowbody aircraft. These shifts highlight the potentialinefficiencies operators may encounter as they adjust their fleet sizes and compositions. Andit signals to MRO providers the need to be adaptable to sudden changes in maintenance © Oliver Wymanrequirements due to fleet adjustments, which can impact their service offerings and analre