美国政策的转变将如何影响能源行业

© Oliver Wyman2024 marked athree-year low for trading margins across commodities, as lower volatility and more efficientmarkets left traders with limited opportunities. But early policy moves by the new Trump administration mayinject the kind of market volatility and inefficiency that traders can exploit, especially in the energysector.In its first three months in office, the new administration has issued a raft of executive orders, policies, andformal statements related to commodities, and energy in particular — with the potential to alter marketdynamics and open opportunities for commodity traders to capitalize on. While some of these proposedexecutive actions have yet to materialize, commodity traders are cautiously optimistic, given the prospects formarket swings, but should also brace for an unpredictable environment that might make fundamentals-driventrading morechallenging.Exhibit 1:Summary of Trump Administration’s executive orders, policies, andtariffsAs of March 27,2025DescriptionDateUSP&G USOil CrudeLNGCoalMetalsSoftEnergypolicyBans on new leasing for onshore and offshorewind20/01New oil, gas and mineral production inAlaska20/01“Declaring a national energy emergency”: facilitate domesticenergyproduction20/01“UnleashingAmericanEnergy”Rescind Biden-era energypolicies20/01Reduce regulatoryburden20/01Simplify federal permitting for energyprojects20/01Lifted restrictions of new LNGexports20/01Temporary halt on IRA and IAJAfunding20/01Eliminate EVmandate20/01Withdrawal from climateagreements20/01Increased mineralproduction20/03Tariffs10% tariff on goods fromChina01/0225% tariff on goods from Canada (10% on energy) —takenback on06/0301/0225% tariff on all goods from Mexico —taken back on06/0301/0225% on steel and aluminium on allcountries10/02Possible tariff on copperimports25/02Tariffs against countries that buy Venezuelanoil24/03Reciprocal tariffs on other regions (for example,Europe)05/04Other likelyactionsStockpile oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve(SPR)—Foreign policy changes on Russia and Iransanctions—Source:Oliver Wymananalysis © Oliver WymanLet’s look at the energy markets for examples of the headwinds and tailwinds affectingtrading. The Trump administration’s recent energy-related policies and statements reflect astrategic emphasis on deregulation and a commitment to boosting domestic oil production.At the same time, President Trump has frozen funds designated for wind and solar energydevelopment through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment andJobs Act (IIJA) — key energy policies of the Biden administration. This is despite early hopesthat the legislative programs might be spared given the significant number of Republican-leaning states that benefit fromthem.A VIEW ON THE NEXT FOURYEARSThe future trajectory of energy trading markets, as well as those for other commodities, willbe shaped by three key factors: the intensity of political push from the administration, thesubsequent reactions from commodity producers, and the degree of market consolidationthrough M&A activity. Based on these dimensions, we see three possible scenarios resulting:the floor, the flood, and thefolly.Exhibit 2:Possible scenarios: the floor, the flood and thefollyThefloorThefloodThefolly•Tariffsshort-lived•Limited increase indomesticproduction•Mediumvolatility•Supply-demandbalance and behaviorsmostlyunchanged•Re-introduction ofRussian volumes toopenmarket•Quick and deep pricefall•Lowvolatility•AggressiveM&Astrategies•Continued strongpolitical push (tariffs,domestic energypolicies)•Global tradewars, heightenedgeopoliticaltension•HighvolatilityPoliticalpushSupplyincreaseM&AHighMediumLowSource:Oliver WymananalysisIn the“floor”scenario, the administration has initiated the bulk of actions it expectsto take regarding energy, and may roll back some of the edicts if negotiations betweengovernments are successful. Executive orders aimed at boosting US oil and gas productioncollide with the market’s economic realities, and oil majors choose to maintain currentproduction levels to avoid threatening their own margins. In this scenario, the current softenergy market dynamics would continue unaffected, with expected trading margins not © Oliver Wymanmaterially different from 2024’s. Ultimately, the market would remain largely driven byfundamentals, not policy, with the impact of administration directives already priced inand supply and demand largely unchanged andpredictable.A more dramatic picture emerges under the“flood”scenario, which would see a significantinflux of domestic and international volumes. Under persistent political pressure, domesticproducers may have no choice than to increase production. If — as many predict — Russiansanctions are lifted in addition, the open market would find itself flooded with crude fromthe US and Russia. OPEC would likely respond in kind and export more oil. The consequencewould be a quick and deep drop in oilprices.The price drop would put severe pressure on b