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化工日报：下游轮胎出货一般，库存消化缓慢

2025-05-09梁宗泰、陈莉、杨露露、吴硕琮、刘启展华泰期货我***

AI智能总结

Okay, let's talk about the "Bidenomics" framework. When discussing it, it's important to understand that it's not a single, formally named economic doctrine like "Keynesianism" or "Monetarism." Instead, Bidenomics is a descriptive term used primarily by critics and the media to refer to the economic policies and principles guiding the Biden administration.

It's often characterized by a blend of approaches, drawing from various schools of economic thought, but generally emphasizing:

Fiscal Expansion: Increased government spending and tax cuts, particularly for lower and middle-income earners, to stimulate economic growth and address inequality.
Investment in Infrastructure: A significant focus on public investment in physical infrastructure (roads, bridges, broadband) and green technology.
Support for Labor: Policies aimed at strengthening workers' rights and collective bargaining power.
Targeted Tax Relief: Tax cuts for individuals and corporations, but with an emphasis on making the tax system more progressive and closing loopholes.
Regulation: Continued use of regulatory tools to address issues like climate change, financial stability, and labor standards.

Key Policies and Initiatives Often Associated with Bidenomics:

American Rescue Plan (ARP): A massive fiscal stimulus package passed early in Biden's term in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including direct payments to individuals, enhanced unemployment benefits, and state and local aid.
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA): A significant spending bill focused on modernizing roads, bridges, broadband internet, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and more.
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): While primarily focused on climate change and healthcare cost reduction, it also includes substantial investments in clean energy, tax changes (including corporate minimum tax and oil and gas taxes), and some tax relief for middle-income families.
Chips and Science Act: Investing in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Pro-Union Stance: Efforts to pass legislation like the PRO Act (though stalled) and appointing union-friendly officials to agencies like the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

Underlying Goals:

Stimulate Economic Growth: By increasing demand through government spending and targeted tax relief.
Reduce Inequality: By focusing spending on social programs and lower/middle-income tax cuts, and by investing in communities historically disadvantaged.
Promote Sustainable Development: Through investments in green technology and infrastructure.
Invest in Human Capital: By funding education, healthcare, and job training programs.

Criticisms and Debates:

Deficit Concerns: Critics argue that the increased government spending, particularly on infrastructure and social programs, will significantly expand the national deficit and national debt.
Inflation: Some attribute rising inflation during Biden's term to the combination of fiscal stimulus and supply chain disruptions, arguing the spending was excessive.
Taxation: Concerns are raised about the impact of the corporate minimum tax and potential future tax increases on businesses and investment.
Effectiveness: Debates continue about the long-term effectiveness of infrastructure spending and the actual impact on job creation and economic growth.
Progressivity: While aiming for progressivity, some argue certain elements, like the infrastructure bill's cost-sharing requirements, disproportionately benefit wealthier individuals or corporations.

In Summary:

Bidenomics is best understood as the descriptive label for the Biden administration's economic policy approach, characterized by a blend of fiscal expansion, significant public investment (especially in infrastructure and green technology), support for labor, and targeted tax adjustments. It aims to stimulate growth, reduce inequality, and promote sustainable development, but faces ongoing debates and criticisms regarding its impact on deficits, inflation, and overall economic effectiveness. It draws inspiration from various economic traditions but isn't a rigid, named doctrine.

请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2025年期货市场研究报告请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明第2页第2页润小幅改善，目前处于盈亏平衡附近。国内现实轮胎需求仍差，半钢胎开工率持续下降。目前依然是天然橡胶价格高于合成橡胶，轮胎替代需求对顺丁橡胶仍有支撑。上游丁二烯原料因生产利润仍不错以及港口库存高企以及后期供应压力回升，丁二烯后期仍有回落压力。供需偏弱，预计价格弱势运行为主。风险美国关税政策的变化，产区天气变化，以及下游需求的波动。 2025年期货市场研究报告图表图1：RU基差..............................................................................................................................................................................4图2：NR基差..............................................................................................................................................................................4图3：RU-混合胶.........................................................................................................................................................................4图4：烟片进口利润....................................................................................................................................................................4图5：云南胶水价格....................................................................................................................................................................4图6：海南胶水价格....................................................................................................................................................................4图7：海南胶水-云南胶水...........................................................................................................................................................5图8：泰国胶水价格....................................................................................................................................................................5图9：泰国杯胶价格....................................................................................................................................................................5图10：泰国胶水-杯胶.................................................................................................................................................................5图11：泰国标胶生产毛利..........................................................................................................................................................5图12：泰国烟片生产毛利..........................................................................................................................................................5图13：混合胶-丁苯.....................................................................................................................................................................6图14：全乳胶-3L........................................................................................................................................................................6图15：全乳胶-混合胶.................................................................................................................................................................6图16：3L-混合胶........................................................................................................................................................................6图17：RU-NR.............................................................................................................................................................................6图18：青岛港口库存..................................................................................................................................................................6图19：RU期货库存....................................................................................................................................................................7图20：NR期货库存....................................................................................................................................................................7图21：华东丁二烯价格..............................................................................................................................................................7图22：韩国丁二烯FOB..............................................................................................................................................................7图23：顺丁橡胶BR9000现货价格.............................................................................................................................................7图24：BR基差.............................................................................................................................................................................7图25：高顺顺丁橡胶周度开工率..............................................................................................................................................8图26：高顺顺丁橡胶周度产量..................................................................................................................................................8图27：顺丁橡胶企业库存..........................................................................................................................................................8图28：顺丁橡胶贸易商库存.................................................................................

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