锌月报：需求预期转弱，锌价重心下移

需求预期转弱 锌价重心下移 核心观点及策略 要点要点要点宏观面看，美国经济转弱而就业韧性强，尚未出现衰退迹象，美联储如期按兵不动且保留降息预期。国内经济扩张放缓，关税冲击显现。存量政策加速落地，增量政策保留空间。近期中美展开初步磋商，贸易局势缓和但风险未消除。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 供应端看，海外矿企多生产平稳，国内矿山季节性复产，原料供应继续改善。锌价回落抑制矿企上调加工费意愿，5月内外矿加工费回升节奏放缓。4月精炼锌供应不及预期，5月炼厂减复产并存，供应环比持平。沪伦比价修复，锌锭进口预期增加，供应总体保持偏高水平。 黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，财政支出扩大及重点项目进展顺利，支撑基建板块；地产修复为主、汽车消费平稳；但受出口冲击及国补效应边际减弱，家电增速或放缓；光伏抢装潮告一段落，关税冲击或令镀锌板远端出口承压。 高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，关税冲突缓和，国内存量政策加速落地，宏观边际改善。进口锌锭补充预期下，供应保有压力，抢出口效应减弱叠加消费旺季尾声，供需转弱，中下旬累库压力增加，锌价重心存下移风险。预计5月锌价主要运行区间在21000-23000元/吨。 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 风险因素：宏观风险，锌锭进口不及预期 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................83.1.1全球锌精矿供应由紧转松...................................................................................................83.1.2锌精矿加工费加速回升，锌矿进口窗口维持关闭.......................................................103.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................113.2.1海外炼厂减扩产并存，供应扰动风险仍存.....................................................................113.2.2 1炼厂利润修复，精炼锌月供应明显回升......................................................................123.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................143.3.1关税政策冲击经济前景，海外消费增速预计回落..........................................................143.3.2初端企业开工符合季节性，镀锌板出口延续强劲.......................................................163.3.3政策加码支持，终端消费分化.........................................................................................173.4海外库存先抑后扬，国内超预期去库......................................20 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................7图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................7图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................7图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................7图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内重要经济指标........................................................................................................7图表10 2025年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）..................................................................9图表11全球锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................9图表12国内锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................9图表13 2025年国内锌矿新增情况（万吨）........................................................................10图表14内外加工费延续回升................................................................................................10图表15锌矿进口盈亏............................................................................................................10图表16锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................11图表17冶炼厂原料库存天数................................................................................................11图表18全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................12图表19 2024-2025年海外炼厂事件汇总（万吨）...............................................................12图表20国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................13图表21冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................13图表22精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................13图表23精炼锌进口盈亏情况................................................................................................13图表24 2024-2025年国内主要炼厂投建产情况（万吨）...................................................1