中国新能源商用车领先城市

Yidan Chu and Wenxin Ye Addressing emissions from commercial vehicles is a crucial part of efforts in Chinato decrease air pollutants and achieve national carbon-reduction goals. Commercialvehicles are defined as buses and goods vehicles, such as trucks and utility vehicles,that are mostly used for business purposes.1In 2022, commercial vehicles accountedfor more than 90% of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and more than 60% of particulatematter (PM) emissions from all motor vehicles in China.2The latest data show thatcommercial vehicles make up 12% of China’s vehicle population but are responsible for55% of carbon emissions from vehicle tailpipes.3 The Chinese government has announced a target to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2)intensity—the emissions per unit of gross domestic product—of the transportationsector by 5% by the end of 2025, compared with the 2020 level.4Fleet electrificationis one effective way to reduce emissions from commercial vehicles, and Chinesecities are at the forefront in deploying new energy technologies. These new energytechnologies include battery electric vehicles (BEVs), also known in China as pureelectric vehicles; plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs); and hydrogen fuel-cellelectric vehicles (FCEVs). This brief looks at the electrification progress being made inChina, particularly in the top city markets for new energy commercial vehicles (NECVs),in 2023. All analysis is based on Gasgoo’s registration data of commercial vehiclesproduced domestically in China.5 www.theicct.org communications@theicct.org @theicct.org OVERALL TRENDS Both sales and market penetration of NECVs grew substantially in 2023, with the top-performing city markets making significant contributions to this growth. Registrationsof new NECVs in China increased by 43%, from about 234,000 NECVs in 2022 tomore than 333,000 in 2023. NECV penetration also increased to 11.3% of the entirecommercial vehicle market, up from 9.2% in 2022 (Figure 1). The cities of Shenzhen,Chengdu, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Beijing, and 15 others led the 2023 NECV marketin China with the highest numbers of new registrations, whichclosely approximatestonew vehicle sales. The 20 leading cities together represented 55% of all NECV sales in2023, down from 60% in 2022. This decrease in the share of NECV registrations impliesthat more cities in China are deploying NECVs. Top 20 cities for registrations and market penetration of new energy commercialvehicles in 2022 and 2023 The light-duty segment accounted for most of the NECV sales growth in 2023, as wellas the largest share of NEVC registrations (Figure 2). Registrations of light-duty NECVsincreased 87% from 2022 to 2023, while registrations of heavy-duty NECVs decreased2%.6The NECV light-duty segment also reached a remarkably high level of penetrationin the entire commercial vehicle market at 14.2% in 2023. This is up from 1.0% in 2020,4.4% in 2021, and 9.4% in 2022. The market penetration of the NECV heavy-dutysegment, however, regressed slightly, from 8.9% in 2022 to 8.2% in 2023. Figure 2 Looking at NECV registrations by major vehicle categories provides anotherperspective on market trends. More than 200,000 new energy urban logistics vehicleswere registered in 2023, a 64% increase from 2022, making this category the largestcontributor to NECV growth (Figure 3).7There is wide variation in the gross vehicleweight (GVW) of urban logistics vehicles, but most products registered in 2023 in thiscategory were concentrated in the light-duty segment. This partially explains why thelight-duty segment contributed more to overall NECV market performance in 2023, asshown inFigure 2. Urban logistics vehicles also had the highest market penetration, at37.1%, among all the major commercial vehicle categories in 2023, followed by buses(17.1%) and dump trucks (11.2%). Roughly 36,000 new energy buses were registeredin 2023, a 32% decrease from 2022. About 7,000 new energy dump trucks wereregistered in 2023, an 8% increase from the previous year. The left panel ofFigure3 ranks the major vehicle categories by their new energymarket penetration rate in 2023 from left to right. New energy utility vehicles, tractortrucks, general purpose goods vehicles, and pickup trucks showed substantive growthin the number of registrations in 2023, even as their corresponding penetration ratein the commercial vehicle market stayed below 7%.8However, these four categoriesaccounted for 71.6% of commercial vehicle registrations of all fuel types in 2023 (rightpanel). Thus, the low sales numbers of new energy vehicles in these categories broughtdown the overall market penetration rate for NECVs in 2023. Figure 3 FRONT RUNNERS IN COMMERCIAL VEHICLEELECTRIFICATION This section analyzes the three commercial vehicle categories with the highestpenetration rate for new energy vehicles: urban logistics vehicles, buses, and dumptrucks. For each category, we first provide the national-level electrification backgroundand th