帕兰提尔科技（PLTR）：倍数停滞，基本面良好

USA | Software Palantir Technologies Multiple Stall, Fundamentals Alive PLTR delivered strong results in a seasonally soft 1Q with total/US commercialy/y rev growth accelerating to 39%/71% (vs 36%/64% in 4Q). Guidance wasarguably more impressive, with CY25 rev raised >6x the 1Q beat driven byAIP demand and implying 36% y/y growth vs 29% in CY24 alongside 44%opm and ~43.5% FCF margin. Fundamentals are clearly alive, but we thinkirrational valuation at 56x CY26 rev skews risk/reward negatively. MaintainUnderperform, $60PT=29x. What we liked: 1) 1Q results.Total rev grew 39% y/y (vs Street at 36%), an accel vs 36% in 4Q andan implied $24M beat (vs $59M beat in 4Q and $20-27M beat range in 1Q-3Q24). Non-GAAP opmargin was 44% (vs Street at 42%) and FCF margin was 42% (vs Street at 30%). Total customercount was 769, implying 58 net adds (second highest after 4Q adds of 82).2)US revenue growth.US Commercial rev growth accelerated by 7pts to 71% y/y, though on a 30pt easier growth comp.Mgmt noted that the US Commercial continues to benefit from very strong demand with AIP drivingboth new customer conversions and existing customer expansions. US Govt rev growth was flatat 45% y/y on a 6pt harder comp. US rev grew 55% y/y vs 52% in 4Q.3)CY25 outlook.Total revoutlook was raised by $147M over the midpoint on the $24M 1Q beat (>6x), and now implies 36%y/y growth in CY25 (vs 31% growth prior and vs 29% growth in CY24). US Commercial growthwas raised by $99M and now implies >68% y/y growth vs >54% prior after growing 54% in CY24.Adj op margin was raised to 44% vs 41-42% prior after delivering 39% in CY24. FCF was raisedto $1.6-1.8B (41-46% margin) in CY25 vs $1.5-1.7B prior (40-45%) margin.4)RPO.Total RPO was$1.90B, growing 46% y/y vs 39% in 4Q. Sequentially, $170M was added in 1Q vs $160M/$200Madded in 4Q/3Q. cRPO grew 30% y/y vs 29% in 4Q, though off a 6pt harder growth comp. We notethat the RPO metric excludes government backlog. What we're watching: 1) GTM model.Despite the strong demand trends and execution, we remainconcerned about the GTM model, specifically around the continued reliance on a serviced-ledmodel (FDEs) and a very limited sales force. We commend the product-led growth but question thereluctance to invest more in an enterprise sales model.2)Potential impact from DOGE initiatives.PLTR has one of the highest government exposures in enterprise software with its governmentbusiness representing 55% rev mix and its US government business representing 42% rev mix.3)International demand trends.1Q international commercial rev declined 5% y/y and 11% q/q, drivenby continued headwinds in Europe. We'll be monitoring European tech/AI adoption trends, givenEurope still represents ~11% of rev as of CY24. Valuation.While fundamentals have strengthened in recent quarters, PLTR’s valuation at 56xCY26E rev has risen to unprecedented levels. Even if PLTR can accelerate growth to a 50% 4-yearCAGR, it would have to trade at a 19x CY28E rev multiple just for the stock to hold its current price. Brent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.com Bo Yin * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2249 | byin@jefferies.com Maximilian Joseph * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8926 | mjoseph1@jefferies.com The Long View: Palantir Technologies Investment Thesis / Where We Differ Palantir is the beneficiary of the long-term trend of growing volumes andvariability in data generated by commercial and government organizations.The Foundry and Gotham Platforms help customers integrate and surfaceintelligence within datasets, while the AI Platform (AIP) enables customers tobring GenAI into their operations. We like: 1) 30%+ growth rates at ~$3B scale;2) rapidly improving profitability as Apollo penetrates the installed base in amore meaningful way; 3) GTM momentum with AIP boot camps. Key risks:1) premium valuation; 2) limited revenue visibility and potential lumpiness inquarterly bookings; 3) exposure to US government budgetary changes. Upside Scenario,$105, -15% Downside Scenario,$20, -84% Base Case,$60, -52% •Assumes CY25E/CY26E revenue growth of36%/30%•Assumes CY25E/CY26E gross margin of81%/81%•Assumes CY25E/CY26E cont.margin of65%/65%•PT of $60 implies 29x our CY26E revenue •Assumes CY25E/CY26E revenue growth of>36%/>30%•Assumes CY25E/CY26E gross margin of >81%/>81%•Assumes CY25E/CY26E cont. margin of >65%/>65%•PT of $105 implies 52x our CY26E revenue •Assumes CY25E/CY26E revenue growth of<36%/<30%•Assumes CY25E/CY26E gross margin of <81%/<81%•Assumes CY25E/CY26E cont. margin of <65%/<65%•PT of $20 implies 9x our CY26E revenue Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Data Security:Keeping its customers’ data protected is critical; thus,Palantir continues to evolve its technology and invest in data protection and security features for itsplatform. Palantir enforces proactive security controls throughout the software development lifecycle.Its infrastructure and systems have been built for resili