2025预测美国千禧一代财富的增长

Wealthfront April 2025 Contents 03Section 1Methodological overview05Section 2Key findings10Section 3Appendix Methodological approach We use a bottom-up approach that follows8core steps. The US millennial wealth forecast combinesincome, savings, and wealthtrends seen in previous generations with macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics’Global Economic Model(GEM). Annual growth in millennial net wealth is expected to be around9% in inflation adjusted terms over the forecast period •Combining Oxford Economics' macroeconomic forecasts with the modelling assumption set out in the previoussection, we have produced a forecast for millennial net wealth at the aggregate, asset, and centile level. …outpacing growth in total national wealth asmillennials’ savings rates and incomes peak in middle age Historical comparison Growth in thewealth to income ratio as households agefollowsa trend that isconsistent with previous generations •The analysis brings together forecasts for incomes,savings rates, asset growth, and asset allocation overtime for the millennial cohort. •This bottom-up analysis shows that the net wealthto income ratio for millennials is similar to the pathobserved for previous generations. Wealth held in each asset class grows steadily over the forecast,but pension and equity wealth have the highest growth rate •The change in previous generations’ asset allocation are used to forecast the asset distribution of wealth for millennials. •This captures expected changes in the structure of millennial households’ portfolios as they age. Households in the top centile are expected to see the largestincreases in their net wealth in absolute and percentage terms •All households are anticipated to see their wealth grow over the forecast.•However, net wealth growth is forecast to be stronger for high-income households.*•This will shift the composition of millennial wealth further towards the highest earner (those earning over $229,900). Thehighest income householdsare expected toaccrue the largest absolute gains… Change in net wealth 2022–2025, trillions $, Millennial net wealth Methodological approach We use a bottom-up approach that follows 8 core steps. The US millennial wealth forecast combines income, savings, and wealthtrends seen in previous generations with macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics’Global Economic Model(GEM). Distributional financial accounts (DFA) starting point Using the DFA growth rates potentially underreportsthe net wealth of millennials •The data are underpinned by the Survey of ConsumerFinances (SCF), the latest SCF is for 2022. •In the DFA, the Federal Reserve estimates US householdwealth using macroeconomics trends to create quarterlydata for 2023 and 2024. •However, this approach does not account for the expectedincrease in savings rates for millennials as they age.* •Compared to our approach, this leads to anunderreporting of net wealth by $1.3 trillion in 2024. •This will lead to a larger underreporting by the end of theforecast. •We use the Oxford Economics forecast for 2023 and 2024to adjust for this in the millennial wealth forecast. Step 1—savings rate The gap between age-specific savings rates andthe nationalaverage is expected to peakaround 50 before declining •Forecast savings rates by age of household have beencalibrated relative to the national savings rate: 𝑺𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍=𝑮𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒔𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆−𝑵𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍𝒔𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆 •The savings rate* has been estimated using combination ofestimated rates and the literature.** The modelling assumesthat, going forward, the savings rate differential formillennials follows the same path as seen in pastgenerations. •This, combined with the Gen X and Millennial generationalsavings rates shown opposite, has been used to estimate thesavings curve. •The generational savings rates are based on 10-yearaverages, and the figures shown at age 45 will fall below theestimated curve since it is rising during this period. Step 2—household income Average income increases relative to thenational average as households age •Average income by age has been calculated based on itsratio to the national average income: •The modelling assumes that, going forward, the incomeratio for millennials follows the same growth path as seenin past generations. However, the starting point is different.• The forecast ratio is combined with the GEM forecast forhousehold income growth to estimate average incomes forhouseholds. Step 3—asset allocation •Changes in portfolio structures over time have similar trends across generations.•These trends are used to develop assumptions for asset allocation of millennial households going forward. As millennials age, it is anticipated that their pension and corporateequites will account for a larger proportion of their wealth.Share of wealth held in equity Step 4a—consumer durables Millennials wealth held in consumer durables ise