卡塔尔银行：2025年第一季度总结税收减免是积极因素

EquitiesCommercial Banks 1Q25wrap:Tax exemptions a positive Qatar ◆Combined net income of Qatari banks we cover was flat y/y,coming 1% below our 1Q 25 estimate Aybek Islamov*, CFAAnalyst, MENA FinancialsHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, UAE branchaybek.islamov@hsbc.com+971 4 423 6921 ◆We raise EPS‘25eat Doha Bank,Masraf, QIB and trim at CBQ.Revisionsreflect lower tax rate due to regulatory exemptions Anup Kataria*, CFAAnalyst, MENA FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedanup.g.kataria@hsbc.co.in+91 80 67372218 ◆Raise TPsat Doha, MasrafandQIB. Stocks we cover trade at9.7xEPS2026e and yield4.6%in2025e * Employed by a non-US affiliate ofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations US Fed rate cuts impacted NIMs in Q1 25.Qatari banks’ NIM declined on averageby 21bp y/y in Q1 25 vs a 34bp y/y drop in Q4 24. The rate of decline in NIMaccelerated at QIB & Masraf and decelerated at CBQ and Doha Bank (Exhibit 7).Banks re-priced assets lower during Q1 25 absorbing the impact of lower US Fedrates since September 2024. QNB’s NIM improved 4bp y/y to 2.74% in Q1 25, helpedby exposure to Türkiye. Pre-provisionoperating profiton an improving trend.The rate of decline inPPOP improved at CBQ and Doha Bank in Q1 25 vs Q4 24 (Exhibit 1). PPOPincreased 2% y/y at QIB and 4% y/y at QNB in Q1 25. Masraf’s PPOP fell only 5%y/y in Q1 25 compared to-2% y/y in Q4 24. Excluding QNB,thecost/income ratioimproved sequentially across banks we cover, partially supported by better-than-expected non-funded income. Tax exemptions:Latest disclosures suggest that CBQ, Doha, QIB and Masrafbenefited from tax exemptions applicable to companies thatoperate insixor lessforeigncountries withNAVless than EUR50m.The exemptions may last 5 years.Banks havebuilt precautionary provisions to compensate for any tax liability thatmaycome up. We should have further clarification on the tax position in Q3 25. Revisions:Lower tax rate assumptions offset our negative revisions to pre-taxearnings at CBQ, Masraf andQIB (Exhibits 4-6). We have highest positive netincome revisions at Doha Bank, +41% in 2026e, ontheback of more optimistic NIMexpectationsand lower NIM. We raise TPs at Doha, Masraf and QIB on back ofpositive earnings revisions. We have a Buy rating on CBQ, Doha, QIB and QNB;Hold on Masraf Al Rayan. From‘neutral-land’with love The 19thedition of the EM Sentiment Survey Issuer of report:HSBCBank Middle East Ltd,UAE branch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com EPS and pre-provision operating profitperformance NIMperformance Loan loss reserve ratios Loan growth Non-funded incomegrowth CET1 ratio Valuation and risks Aybek Islamov*| aybek.islamov@hsbc.com | +971 4423 6921 Financials & valuation: Commercial Bank of Qatar Financials & valuation:Doha Bank Financials & valuation: Masraf Al Rayan Financials & valuation:Qatar Islamic Bank Financials & valuation: Qatar National Bank Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Aybek Islamov, CFA and Anup Kataria, CFA Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis forfinancial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from theratingbecause research reports contain more complete information con