全球盈利修正比率

24 April 2025 The Global Earnings Revision Ratio has collapsed Quant StrategyGlobal In April, the Global Earnings Revision Ratio collapsed from 0.76 to 0.53 as the reality oftariffs started to impact earnings expectations. The Global Ratio is now the lowest infive years and is approaching levels reached during previous major downturns,suggesting the risk of a global profit recession has increased.During the month, theRatio fell inall regionsand is now lowest in theUS(0.37) andEurope(0.41).By globalsector, the Ratio fell in all global sectors and is lowest for Energy (0.32), ConsumerDiscretionary (0.38), and Tech Hardware (0.42). In the past, when the Ratio was nearcurrent levels and falling, global equities averaged+4.0%in the next 12 months. Nigel Tupper>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)+61 2 9226 5735nigel.tupper@bofa.com Largest falls were in Developed Markets Amar Vashi>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)amar.vashi@bofa.com In April, the Earnings Revision Ratio moderated in all regions including the US (0.70 to0.37), Europe (0.82 to 0.41), andJapan(1.20 to 0.80). In aggregate, theDevelopedMarket Ratioslumped from 0.84 to 0.47. The fall was less dramatic inAsia Pac ex-Japan(0.64 to 0.54) and Emerging Markets (0.68 to 0.61). Sumuhan Shanmugalingam>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)sumuhan.shanmugalingam@bofa.com Asia Pac ex-Japan Ratio moderated Last month, the APxJ Ratio fell from 0.64 to 0.54 in tandem with other regions.In APxJ,the Ratio fell to a six-year low inAustralia(0.58 to 0.30) and fell meaningfully inKorea(0.82 to 0.43) andSingapore(0.71 to 0.35). In contrast, the Ratio improved inTaiwan(0.52 to 0.69) and was relatively resilient inChina(0.67 to 0.60) andIndia(0.49 to 0.47). Unless otherwise noted, all links onthe front page of this report refer tosections in this research report. Chart 1: Global Earnings Revision RatioThe Global Earnings Revision Ratio slumped from 0.76 to 0.53, led by Developed Markets Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 38 to 40. Contents Global Earnings Expectations4Equity market performance vs Earnings Revision Ratio5Valuation vs Earnings Revision Ratio6Global Regions: Earnings Revision Ratio7Global Countries: Earnings Revision Ratio11Asia Pac ex-Japan Countries: Earnings Revision Ratio12Global Sectors: Earnings Revision Ratio15Asia Pac ex-Japan Sectors: Earnings Revisions Ratio22Global Styles: Earnings Revision Ratio23Earnings Revision Ratio Matrix27Global Region-Sector Earnings Revision Ratio Matrix27Asia Pac Country-Sector Earnings Revision Ratio Matrix28Subsequent Performance30Global 3-month Ratio and subsequent performance30Global 1-month Ratio and subsequent performance31Asia Pac ex-Japan 3-month Ratio and subsequent performance32Asia Pac ex-Japan 1-month Ratio and subsequent performance33Global 3-month Ratio and subsequent regional performance34Seasonality35Global Quant Publications36 Notice to Readers: The various screens identified in this report are intended to be indicative metrics onlyand may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for anyfinancial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These screens werenot created to act as a benchmark. The screens in this report are not a recommended list either individually or as a group ofstocks. Investors should consider the fundamentals of the companies and their ownindividual circumstances/objectives before making any investment decisions. Global Earnings Expectations The Earnings Revision Ratio measures the number of stocks for which the consensusEPS estimate has risen versus the number for which it has fallen. Chart 2: Global Earnings Revision Ratio and the Global WaveStrong relationship between the Global Earnings Revision Ratio and the Global Wave BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Countries with higher Earnings Revision Ratio outperformed the ones with lower Ratio Equity market performance vs Earnings Revision Ratio Chart 4: Global: YoY Market Perf vs Earnings Revisions