大规模模块化生态系统：理解数字时代复杂产业的框架（英）

Massive Modular Ecosystems A Framework for Understanding Complex Industriesin the Digital AgePublic Disclosure Authorized Eric ThunDaria TaglioniTimothy J. SturgeonMark P. Dallas Development EconomicsDevelopment Research GroupApril 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11106 Abstract The rapid evolution of the global economy, driven bydigitization and modularization, has outpaced existingtheoretical tools. This paper proposes a unified analyticalframework for understanding the complexity of digitalindustries through the lens of Massive Modular Ecosystems.To operationalize this concept, the paper develops a system-atic methodology for mapping prevailing and alternativegovernance structures across interconnected, layered, andnested ecosystems. Synthesizing insights from the globalvalue chain governance, modularity and standards, andbusiness ecosystem literatures, the paper demonstrates howmodular governance enables distributed innovation, whilenon-modular governance structures—including captivesupply relationships, relational partnerships, and hierar-chical control—support greater value capture and strategiccontrol. The defining element of a Massive Modular Eco-system is not that every relationship is purely modular, butthat non-modular relationships operate in a “sea of mod-ularity,” a context where modularity prevails. Using a case study of the mobile phone industry, the paper depicts aMassive Modular Ecosystem characterized by a dynamicmix of internalization and outsourcing, with a few domi-nant players in each sub-ecosystem but no dominant actoroverall. The study explores the broader implications of Mas-sive Modular Ecosystems, including their impact on marketstructure, technological innovation, and global-scale eco-nomic geography. Increasing geographic specialization andclustering of sub-ecosystems create strong interdependen-cies across countries, making aggressive policy interventionsrisky and potentially leading to unintended consequences.Efforts to build self-sufficient domestic industries may beimpractical and costly, while attempts to decouple fromMassive Modular Ecosystems can lead to exclusion fromcritical innovation networks and standard-setting processes.By providing an integrative analytical tool, this paper offerspolicymakers, business leaders, and scholars a systematicapproach to navigating the complexities of modern digitalindustries. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Massive Modular Ecosystems: A Framework for Understanding ComplexIndustries in the Digital Age1 Eric Thun,†Daria Taglioni,‡Timothy J. Sturgeon,§Mark P. Dallas¶ †University of Oxford Saïd Business School. E-mail:eric.thun@sbs.ox.ac.uk.‡World Bank Development Research Group. E-mail:dtaglioni@worldbank.org.§MIT Industrial Performance Center. E-mail:sturgeon@mit.edu.¶Union College. E-mail:dallasm@union.edu. JEL codes:L14Transactional Relationships • Contracts and Reputation • Networks L22Firm Organization and Market StructureL23Organization of ProductionL25Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and ScopeO14Industrialization • Manufacturing and Service Industries • Choice of TechnologyO32Management of Technological Innovation and R&DO33Technological Change: Choices and Consequences • Diffusion Processes Keywords: Industrial Organization, Innovation, Modularity, Platforms, Standards, GlobalValue Chains, Business Ecosystems, Socioeconomic Megastructures MASSIVE MODULARECOSYSTEMS TABLE OFCONTENTS 2.LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................................................................................................................................2 2.1MODULARITY AND STANDARDS................................................................................................................................................................................22.2GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS..........................................................................................................................................................................................32.3BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS AND PLATFORMS.................................................................................................................................................................42.4SHORTCOMINGS OF EXISTING LITERATURES...............................................