生物制药会计、宏观敏感度与风险回报

EquitiesBioPharma Accounting, macrosensitivitiesandrisk-reward Developed Markets ◆We revisit our sector picks, looking atearningssensitivitytomacroand accountinganalysisforPart D Rajesh Kumar*Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1629 ◆GARP ideas (Abbvie, J&J,and Sanofi) and cheap growth(Novo, UCBandAstra)are our preferredBuy-ratedplays Morten Herholdt*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bankplcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com+ 44 20 7992 4082 ◆DowngradeLillyto Reduce (from Buy), andRoche,Biogen toHold (from Buy).Reduce on Novartis,GSK.Adjust TPs Yifeng Liu*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com+44 20 7 9919355 Where are we in the cycle?The big debate remainsonwherewearein the cycle.If theUS tariffs are a tool for negotiation, andeventually ease, consumer confidenceand theeconomic outlook might recover.The bear case assumestariffs lead toUS stagflation.Pharma earningshistoricallyare notparticularlycyclical, butmultiplesare evenless so.The confluence of first-timeUS tariffsrisks combined with a large patent cliff andPartD/IRA headwindmight create some pressure on earnings this time. Sidharth Sahoo*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in+91 77 3813 4135 Tariffs can hurt earnings:Depending on the company,our proprietary analysissuggestsinnovative pharma could faceearnings headwinds ofroughlyc6-14%if a 25%US tariff wereapplied.Beyond this mathematical impact, a closer scrutiny of accountsand supply chainsrevealspotential risks to earnings mightstem from other mechanisms(e.g. tax rates), depending on how tariffs are structured (finished products, API, patentboxes–or allofthese). Sezgi Oezener*, CFAAnalyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Continental Europe SA, Germanysezgi.oezener@hsbc.de+49 211 9103290 Dylan Whitfield*, FCAHead of Forensic Accounting ResearchHSBC Bank plcdylan.b.whitfield@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 5903 Part Dchangesareuncharted waters:Part D earnings riskinH2’25is less wellunderstood, we contend.Moreimportantly, there is little precedentof manufacturerssharing the cost burden inthe catastrophic phase. This mightlead to greater subjectivityin accounting for suchanimpact, and variability in earnings guidance(more sothanin thepast).Recent warningsfrom UnitedHealth(UNH US, USD427.18, Hold)must serve as areminder of the risk.Oncology names such as Pfizer and BMY have greater exposure toriskin the near term.Lower price drugsfacegreater risk in H2’25,in our opinion. Shubhangi Gupta*, Ph.D.Analyst, Life Sciences & HealthcareResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143 Yessica Sanchez*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCyessica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx+55 52 8551 7904 GLP penetrationsensitivity to macro:Whilst obesity therapeutics represent the largeststructuralgrowth opportunityforthe sector, given the potential dependence of furthergrowth in increasedpatientaccess,the sensitivity to unemploymentis unknown.Nearterm, we think removal of compounders in the US from the GLP market might underwritescript momentum for Novo. We are not certain that is the case for Lilly. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations It is not all bad:Ouranalysis suggests current sector multiples (growth-adjusted)reflect close to recessionarylevels.If thebull caseplays out, multiplesrecoverycouldbe attractive.Through the note, we place markers for what one might see in theaccounts through a forensic lens,to discernwhetherour hypothesis is on track. Our picks:Downgrade Lilly to Reduce (from Buy) as risk-reward isnotattractive;downgrade Roche and Biogen to Hold (from Buy).We prefer Buy-ratedgrowthnames (Novo,Astra,and UCB), GARP ideas (Abbvie, Sanofi), and defensivestocks(J&J). Our Reduce ideasare GSK, Lilly and Novartis.We revise all our target prices,largelyon the back ofhigher WACCs. HSBC Funding the Future Survey Tariffs dampen sentiment Click to view Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Research summary: Ratings, numbers, and key issues Key ratingchanges,andrationale Downgrade Eli Lilly to Reduce, from Hold:The market has assumed asignificantmarket share for Lilly.With potential economic sensitivity totheadoption curve for GLPs, wethink these expectations might be revised down. Further, we thinkthatin the currenteconomic environment, stockswith higher multiples are at greater risk of thosemultiplescontracting. We cut our target price to USD700 (fromUSD1,150), implyi