恩智浦半导体公司（NXPI）：恩智浦半导体（NXPI）2025年第一季度回顾 - 迷雾之中...

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 200.00 USD(225.00OLD) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): Q125 recap - Into the mist... NXPI Q225 results were largely in-line ($2,835M/56.1%/$2.64) vs Street($2,833M/56.4%/$2.60). Auto and Industrial missed, with Mobile and Comms aboveexpectations. Channel inventory rose a week QoQ to ~9 weeks. And CEO Kurt Sieversannounced his retirement, transitioning to Rafael Sotomayor (EVP and GM of SecureConnected Edge) in October. Guidance was in-line to a bit above ($2,900M/56.3%/$2.66 vs Street ($2,863M/56.6%/$2.63) with Auto and Industrial/IoT roughly in-line, Mobile a touch below, and Comms above.Management noted signs of improving cycle dynamics, however, given the dynamic tariffenvironment they are hesitant to forecast beyond Q225 (perhaps understandable). Grossmargins are seen flattish QoQ, but below expectations. On the positive, in the near term management actually sounded a bit constructive thatcyclical trends could be turning, and while Auto and Industrial/IoT missed in the quarterthe Q2 guides appear mostly in-line. However, they were unwilling to give any view into the2H; while such hesitance should perhaps not be surprising given hazy visibility into policytrends this also means that revenue estimates are unlikely to come down amid what is clearlyincreasing uncertainty, bringing more risk especially given current inventory levels (169 days)and the impending CEO change, and automotive markets might be at the forefront of tariffdynamics. We are mixed on the CEO transition; on the one hand it is an awkward time to hangthings up, but on the other hand it does sound like a genuinely personal call on Mr. Sievers’part (which we have sympathy for). We wish him luck. Valuation is at least not as aggressive compared to some peers, and in a normal environmentwithout tariff risk we could find ourselves turning a bit more positive here on the cyclicalcommentary. However, heavy auto exposure (which could conceivably be at ground zero fortariff effects) and 2H worries (with no push to de-risk) still give us some pause. We lowerestimates, and take PT to $200 (16x, unchanged, on FY26 EPS). We rate NXPI MP. Investment Implications DETAILS Please click here for our most recent NXPI model:model NXPI Q225 results were ok, largely in-line with consensus on revenues, a touch above on EPS, though a bit belowon margins ($2,835M/56.1%/$2.64) vs Street ($2,833M/56.4%/$2.60). On a segment level, Auto and Industrialmissed consensus, with Mobile and Comms Infrastructure above expectations. Channel inventory rose sequentiallyto ~9 weeks, and on-book inventories remained roughly flattish in $ but days rose significantly. The companyannounced that CEO Kurt Sievers will be retiring, transitioning to Rafael Sotomayor (current NXPI EVP and GM ofSecure Connected Edge) in October. •NXPI's Q1 saleswere $2,835M, roughly in-line with consensus at $2,833M and above guidance of $2,825M (Exhibit 1). •PF Gross Marginof 56.1% was below consensus (56.4%) (Exhibit 2). •PF Operating Marginof 31.9% was ~50 bps above consensus (31.4%) (Exhibit 3). •PF Opexof $687M was roughly in-line with consensus ($707M) (Exhibit 4). •Share countwas ~255M, in-line with consensus (255M). •Pro-forma EPSwas $2.64 above consensus at $2.60 (Exhibit 1). •By segment, Auto was $1,674M, below Bloomberg consensus at $1,694M. Industrial/IoT came in at $508M belowconsensus at $514M. Mobile was $338M, above Bloomberg consensus at $325M and Communication Infrastructure /Other was $315M, above Bloomberg consensus at $295M (Exhibit 5,Exhibit 6). •Inventories on the balance sheetwere flattish (-0.3%) sequentially on a dollar basis to $2,350, down $6M vs Q4 at$2,356M, with days rising by 18 to 169 days vs 151 last quarter (Exhibit 7) and reaching record levels. Distribution channel inventoryrose to ~9 weeks though still sits below their target of 2.4 months (~10 weeks) (Exhibit 8). •Sales through distributiondecreased slightly to 56.7% of total revenues sequentially (Exhibit 9) as management notedsofter sales in China due seasonality, and Japan as well as due to the timing of pricing negotiations, both of which are marketsserved heavily through the distribution channel. Net Leveragewent up slightly to 1.6x from 1.5x last quarter, below the company's target of 2.0x (Exhibit 10). •The company repurchased $303M in shares in the quarter. •CEO Kurt Sievers is retiring,to be replaced by current EVP and GM of the Secure Connected Edge business RafaelSotomayor. Guidance was above on revenues and EPS, though a bit below on gross margins ($2,900M/56.3%/$2.66) vs Street($2,863M/56.6%/$2.63) with Auto and Industrial/IoT roughly in-line, Mobile a touch below, and Comms above.Management noted signs of improving cycle dynamics, with improving distribution partner backlo