2024年中美国经济展望白皮书

2024 Mid-Year Outlook:An Unstable Economic Equilibrium June 2024 Torsten SløkApollo Chief Economist KEY TAKEAWAYS The US economy has shown more resilience and staminathan most people expected when the Federal Reservestarted raising interest rates in March 2022. But now,more than two years into the Fed’s tightening campaign,we find ourselves in a state of unstable equilibrium, withpowerful forces pulling the economy in oppositivedirections. Which force is likely to win this economic tug of war? Given the current underlying strength of the USeconomy, we believe that easier financial conditionswill continue to offset the effects of the Fed rate hikes,at least for the next three quarters, driven by strongconsumer spending (particularly on services), still-highgovernment spending (as a result of several recentspending bills), still-strong aggregate corporate earnings,and the “wealth effect” triggered by rising asset prices. On the one hand, the lagged effects of Fed rate hikescontinue to reign in growth, with higher borrowing costsbiting into over-levered consumers, corporates, andbanks alike. The upshot? Rising consumer delinquencies,higher corporate bankruptcies, and increased pressureon some banks’ balance sheets, especially smallerregional banks. As a result, we expect US economic growth to come inabove consensus in 2024, at 2.5%, on the back of astill-strong employment picture. We expect inflation toremain above the Fed’s 2% target for the foreseeablefuture, despite a mild reading of the consumer price index(CPI) in May. As of this writing, we remain confident in theview we’ve held since last year: Interest rates will remainhigher for longer. We see no Fed cuts in 2024. On the other hand, the Fed “pivot” in December 2023triggered an easing of financial conditions—bondissuance surged, M&A activity awakened, risky assetsrallied, and bond spreads tightened meaningfully. Theseeasier conditions have at least partly neutralized the effectsof the Fed hikes, paving the way for a reacceleration inboth economic growth and inflation. We believe that private credit remains a compellingasset class. In equities, value can offer a more favorablerisk-reward than growth. A Tale of Two Forces Such sturdiness, however, did not come without cost, asinflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% annualtarget. All-in, we now find ourselves—more than two yearsinto the Fed’s tightening campaign—in a state of unstableequilibrium, with powerful forces pulling the economy inoppositive directions (Exhibit 1). The US economy has shown incredible resilience and morestamina than most people expected when the Federal Reservebegan its tightening cycle in March 2022, putting an end toalmost 15 years of extremely low interest rates. At the time,many feared that a drastic and rapid increase in interest rateswould “break” the economy, which had become accustomedto low borrowing costs. Further, worries about the adequacyof US corporate capital structures in a new regime of higherrates abounded. Most of those fears did not come to pass, asthe economy remained strong in the face of costlier capital. In the remainder of this paper, we will discuss these individualforces in detail, explore potential outcomes, provide our viewson how this economic tug-of-war will unfold, and investigatewhat impact can be expected on capital markets andinvestment portfolios. The fragile US economic outlook The Lagged Effects of the Fed Rate Hikes Highly Levered Consumers This is what the textbook would have predicted: When youraise interest rates, the economy should begin to slow down,with highly leveraged sectors leading the way. Since the startof the Fed’s tightening campaign, younger households,which typically have three characteristics—lower incomes,more debt, and consequently, lower credit (FICO) scores(Exhibit 2)—have been harder hit than older ones. When the Fed started raising interest rates in March of 2022,we began to see impacts on the balance sheets of highlylevered consumers. We also began to see impacts on thebalance sheets of highly levered firms. Finally, we began tosee impacts on banks’ balance sheets, especially those ofsmaller regional banks. Average credit score by age Credit card delinquencies for the youngest households have risen sharply (Exhibit 3)and are approaching rates last seenduring the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The same story can be seen in auto loan delinquency rates (Exhibit 4). People in their 30s and below are falling behind ontheir auto loans at a faster pace than during the pandemic. Indeed, auto delinquencies for that cohort are almost as badas they were at the peak in 2008. Why are these trends a cause for concern? Because the labormarket is still very strong—the US economy added 272,000jobs in May—and unemployment remains quite low. At lastreading, the US unemployment rate stood at just 4.0%—wellbelow the long-term average of 5.7%. Despite that strongemployment picture, increasing numbers of pe