2024年第四季度全球房价指数

Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index provides a quarterly snapshotof trends in mainstream housing markets across 55 markets 2024 Q4 Edition knightfrank.com/research Global housing markets waitingfor rate cuts2.6% annual growth in house prices acrossour 55 market basket In Q4 2024, the average annual price growth across ourbasket of 55 global housing markets increased slightly to2.6%. Although there was a rise, growth still remains wellbelow the long-term trend rate of 4.8%. Further increaseswill likely depend on rate cuts. -10.4%the real rate of annual growth in Turkey,despite nominal growth of 29.4% 80%of markets are seeing positive annualprice growth MODEST GROWTH bottom of the table are mainland China andHong Kong SAR, both of which saw pricesdecline by more than 8% throughout 2024. Global house prices are rising at a modestpace on average across the markets wetrack. The annual global price growthrate of 2.6% is well below the long-termrate of 4.8%. This below-trend periodbegan at the start of 2022 as interest ratessurged worldwide. 4.8%long-run trend rate of annual houseprice growth REAL PRICES ARE FALLING Building on the Turkey narrative mentionedabove, if we adjust our GHPI index forinflation, we find that global house pricespeaked in Q1 2022 and have since fallen by3.6% over two years. The last time real pricesexperienced a decline was in the aftermathof the Global Financial Crisis, when pricesfell by 10% over five years. Fig 1: The Knight Frank GlobalHouse Price Index In our view, for growth to gain furthertraction, interest rates need to be cutfurther. Although the fight againstinflation remains ongoing in manydeveloped markets, it is likely that 2025will see additional reductions in policyrates. Consequently, we expect the averagerate of house price growth to pick up in thesecond half of the year. 2024 Q4 edition, overall index annual% change Real prices have been driven lowernot only by higher interest rates but alsoby above-trend inflation, particularly inEurope and North America. MARKET BY MARKET ANALYSIS Turkey leads our index, recording thestrongest rate of annual growth at 29.4%.Despite this strong growth, when adjustingfor inflation and considering real pricegrowth, house prices in Turkey areactually falling by 10.4% annually at thecurrent time. “Global house prices are currentlyrising, albeit modestly. The boostto growth from last year’s rate cutshas dissipated to an extent, and afurther round of cuts is required toenable an increase in the currentbelow-trend growth rate.” European markets dominate the topof our table in terms of annual growth,with seven markets led by Bulgariaexperiencing growth over 10%. At the Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s Global Head of Research 2024 Q4 edition, markets ranked by annual % change Fig 3: Rate cuts outpace hikes Global central bank policy rates, monthlyhikes vs cuts Keep up to speed with globalhousing markets with our monthlyinternational residential newsletter SIGN UP ONLINE We like questions, if you’ve got one about ourresearch, or would like some property advice,we would love to hear from you. Research enquiriesLiam Bailey+44 7919 303 148liam.bailey@knightfrank.com Press enquiriesEmma Cotton+44 7974 521 802emma.cotton@knightfrank.com