打破趋势：撒哈拉以南非洲的债务稳定

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND REGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOKNOTES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Breaking the Trend: Debt Stabilizationin Sub-Saharan Africa 2025APR INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND REGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOKNOTES SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Breaking the Trend: Debt Stabilizationin Sub-Saharan Africa ©2025 International Monetary Fund Breaking the Trend: Debt Stabilization in Sub-Saharan Africa Prepared by Athene Laws, Thibault Lemaire, Rachid Pafadnam, Nikola Spatafora,and Khushboo Khandelwal.* Names: Laws, Athene, author. | Lemaire, Thibault, author. | Pafadnam, Rachid, author. | Spatafora, Nikola, author.| Khandelwal, Khushboo, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: Breaking the trend : debt stabilization in Sub-Saharan Africa / Athene Laws, Thibault Lemaire, RachidPafadnam, Nikola Spatafora, and Khushboo Khandelwal. Other titles: Debt stabilization in Sub-Saharan Africa. | IMF Notes. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2025. | Apr. 2025. | Includes bibliographical references. Subjects: LCSH: Debt—Sub-Saharan Africa. | Economic development—Africa, Sub-Saharan. Classification: LCC HJ8834.7.L3 2025 DISCLAIMER:IMF Notes aim to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to membercountries and the broader policy community. The views expressed in IMF Notes are those of the author(s), althoughthey do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its Management. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Laws, Athene, Thibault Lemaire, Rachid Pafadnam, Nikola Spatafora, andKhushboo Khandelwal. 2025. “Breaking the Trend: Debt Stabilization in Sub-Saharan Africa.” IMF Note2025/001, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. *This note was prepared by staff from the IMF African Department, under the guidance of Andrew Tiffinand Catherine Pattillo. Breaking the Trend: Debt Stabilizationin Sub-Saharan Africa ƒHistorical experience suggests that stabilizing debt across sub-Saharan Africa is still achievablein most cases, even though debt levels are elevated and vulnerabilities are high.ƒCountries in the region, over recent decades, have often been able to consolidate (stabilize or reduce)their debt ratios without debt restructuring. Many countries have done so recently, even after the endof the commodity super cycle.ƒSuccessfuldebtstabilizationrequiresmeasurestostrengthenpublicfinancesandasoundmacroeconomic environment, strong institutions, and pro-growth structural reforms. Across sub-Saharan Africadebt consolidations have beenfrequentandsignificant What can we learn from these successes? An ambitious and uncertain path forward Public debt ratios in sub-Saharan Africa have broadly stabi-lized but remain elevatedcompared to the pre-COVID-19period.Baselineprojectionsimplycontinuedregionaldebt stabilization—and even some reduction—but with theassumption that recent efforts to consolidate budgets aremaintained and in some cases intensified. Interest paymentsand overall debt service as a share of revenues are high, bothhistorically and compared with other regions, constrainingcriticaldevelopmentspending(Figure1).Themedianinterest-to-revenue ratio climbed to over 12 percent in2024 (April 2025Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-SaharanAfrica) and is expected to remain elevated, partly becauseof the limited availability of concessional finance and theensuing shift to more expensive market debt. Meanwhile,vulnerabilitiesanduncertaintypersist.Unforeseen events—such as shocks to global growth, globalfinancial conditions, and official development assistance,as well as instability, conflicts, commodity price shocks, and natural disasters—may increase debt ratios significantly. Furthermore, tight external financing conditionsmay increase rollover risk, anddebt restructuring, which is sometimes essential, is socially costly and dauntinglycomplex(Bonizzi, Laskaridis, and Toporowski 2019; Horn and others 2022;IMF 2023). Given these challenges, can sub-Saharan African countries achieve a gradual debt reduction, even withoutdebt restructuring? Debt stabilization is far from rare, even in sub-Saharan Africa Headlines about debt developments in sub-Saharan Africa are often somewhat bleak, but the region’s historyoffers many reasons for optimism: countries in the region have often managed to stabilize and reduce their publicdebt ratios significantly and durably, even outside of debt restructuring episodes.A new data set of all episodesof public debt reduction in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000highlightswhen, how often, to what extent,andhowdebt stabilization was achieved.1 Debt reduction episodes have been relatively frequent. With more than 60 instances over the past 25 years,the probability that a country will experience such an episode in any given year is one in four. Debt reductionepisodes have occurred even when the external environment was relatively unfavorable, including after the endof the commodity super cycle and in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic